Tweezer Tops och Bottoms. Tweezer Tops och Bottoms. The Tweezer Top bildningen ses som ett bearish reverseringsmönster ses på toppen av uppåtgående och Tweezer Bottom bildningen ses som ett hausseformigt reverseringsmönster som ses längst ned i nedåtriktningarna. Tweezer Topformation består av av två ljusstakar. Tweezer Bottom bildning består av två ljusstakar. Bearish Candle Day 1.Bullish Candle Day 2. Ibland Tweezer Tops eller Bottoms har tre ljusstakar. A bearish Tweezer Top uppträder under en uptrend när tjurar tar priser högre, ofta stänger fridagen nära höjderna är typiskt ett starkt haussecken. På andra dagen känner sig emellertid handelsmännen, dvs deras känslor vänder sig helt. Marknaden öppnas och går rakt ner, vilket ofta eliminerar hela vinsterna från Dag 1. Omvänden sker en bullish Twozer Bottom under en Downtrend när björnar fortsätter att sänka priserna, vanligtvis stänger dagen nära lågen, vanligtvis ett starkt bearish tecken. Dag 2 är emellertid helt motsatt becau se priserna öppna och gå ingenstans men uppåt Det här haussefulla förskottet på dag 2 eliminerar ibland alla förluster från föregående dag. Tweezer Bottom Candlestick Chart Exempel. A Tweezer Bottom visas nedan i diagrammet för Exxon-Mobil XOM-lager. Björnen drev priset av Exxon-Mobil XOM nedåt på dag 1 öppnade marknaden på dag 2 där priserna stängdes på dag 1 och gick rakt upp, bakom förlusterna på dag 2 En potentiell köpsignal skulle kunna ges dagen efter Tweezer Bottom, om Det fanns andra bekräftande signaler. Det är alltid mest önskvärt att komma in i början av en trend snarare än att vara i slutet av det. Det är därför som handlare alltid letar efter tidiga signaler för att komma in i dörren då marknaden gör en sväng och vissa vill även ha en bättre kant, kanske ser ut för att komma in innan en trendbackback start. Ett mönster som vi kommer att diskutera i detta avsnitt som kan hjälpa till att stödja våra lust att besättningen kan ändra riktningar kallas pincetten. Även om det S relat Icke känd för det vanliga kan pincetten vara en av de bästa indikationerna på att en kort - eller långsiktig trend kan närma sig slutet. Pincetten delar likheter med den mer populära dubbla toppbotten och kan producera höga sannolikhetsuppställningar i utländsk valuta Marknaden Lär dig mer om dubbla toppar och bottnar i Analysera Diagrammönster. Dubbeltoppar Bottoms En Klassisk En av de första tekniska formationerna som många handlare lär sig om är dubbla toppen eller botten. Dubbel topp eller nedre omvändning är ett mönster som tenderar att bilda Efter en förlängd förlängning uppåt eller nedåt Det betyder att momentet från upptrenden har stoppat och kan komma och sluta. Följande kamp mellan köpare och säljare varar tillfälligt och slutar med köpare som försöker sluta trycka uppåt innan vi ser prisåtgärden minskar slutligt tryck skapar en andra topp i ett annars stabilt kanalmönster som bildar en dubbel topp Läs mer om teknisk analys i vår Technical Analys Är handledning. Figur 1 visar ett läroboksexempel på en dubbel topp i valutaparet EUR USD Här gör euron en hög mot amerikanska dollar bara blyg av 1 6050 siffran i april 2008 Efter två och en halv månad stabil, - övergripande handel gör köpare en slutlig push högre i juli innan de överlämnas till säljare. Resultatet är en skarp och våldsam droppe tills det slutliga stödet nås strax över 1 2250. Sources FX Intellicharts. Tweezers The New Liknande den baisse diamantformationen I popularitet är pincett eller kenuki relativt okända, delvis på grund av att de verkar mycket lik dubbeltopparnas bottnar. Huvudskillnaden är i tidpunkten för dessa två formationer. Pincetter används normalt på kort sikt och består av två eller flera på varandra följande ljus Sessioner Mer än ungefär åtta till tio ljusstämningar och vi kan faktiskt titta på en dubbeltopp eller bottenformation. Men med tanke på den korta tidsramen tenderar kompletta pincettformationer att ha form ra Därmed snabbt Pris är en annan viktig faktor med pincetten I topp - eller bottenformation har prongarna exakt samma höga priser i en pincett eller låga priser i en pincettbotten. Denna idé är nyckeln då det fastställs att prisnivån själv Var inte trasig Lär dig mer om att presentera Bearish Diamond Formation and Candlestick Diagram Vad är det? Sources FX Intellicharts. I Figur 2 har vi en klassisk pincett i femminuterschemat på EUR USD-paret. Efter ett förskott högre än tidigare stöd av 1 3210 såg köparna att tappa ånga Som ett resultat sätts den första högsta punkten A till 1 3284 Efter en kort nedgång i fyra sessioner försökte köparna ett slutligt tryck högre, vilket markerade den andra högsta punkten B på exakt samma sätt Pris på 1 3284 Detta faller inom vår definition av en topp Motståndets styrka och faktum att priset testades igen och inte kunde bryta igenom, hjälper underliggande försäljningspress gnista den kortsiktiga prisnedgången.1 Samma höga Eller lågt måste testas är detta kritiskt.2 Formationen följer ett fördjupat förskott eller nedgång.3 Tvåzertoppar och bottnar tenderar att bildas med två eller flera ljus.4 Ytterligare formationer är bättre Dojis eller hammare som skapar den andra toppen kommer att lägga till signalen som den bekräftar ett skift i känslan. Tradering bildandet Nu kan vi titta på en applikation av pincettmönstret på marknaden. Med GBP-valutaparet ser vi ett perfekt exempel på kort sikt, fem minuter diagram Figur 3 Här förekommer pincetten relativt snabbt med bara två ljussteg efter en förlängning som är lägre än 1 4360 motstånd.1 Den första lågpunkten A är etablerad som det sista ljuset i nedträngningen stängs till 1 4279 i GBP USD.2. andra lågpunkt B är etablerad när följande ljusstämning öppnas vid 1 4279 låg och går inte att bryta den. Som ett resultat har vi gjort det låga priset två gånger utan att bryta 1 4279.3 Efter den andra ljusstämningen har stängt placerar vi en ent ryck två pips över det stängda priset En motsvarande stopporder kommer att placeras bara fem pips under 1 4279.4 Som ett resultat, med en 2-till-1 riskbelöningsprofil, är vinstpotentialen 1 4319 poäng C, 30 pips higher. Tweezers Top och Pincett Bottom. Quelli che vediamo raffigurati sono soltanto alcuni possibili esempi di Tweezers l importante che il mönster rispetti le condizioni beskriva sopra i sostanza si tratta di individuare doppi massimi o doppi minimi molto ravvicinati. In assenza di una candela reversal kommer andra stearinljus, men det är inte så mycket som möjligt, men det är ett sätt att se till att det är så mycket som möjligt. Det är ett sätt att uppnå mänskliga rättigheter, och det är viktigt att du har en stor del av ditt arbete och att du inte kommer att behöva misslyckas. En livlig dagliga preferens för att förmedla en annan förälskelse av en karaktäristikerande person och en omvändelse i modo da rafforzare la figura, en livello settimanale o men sile possiamo anche farne a meno. Ma vidiamo degli esempi su grafici tratti dal mercato reale. Quello che segue il grafico giornaliero del titolo Mondadori Il prezzo provine da lunga discesa o realizza un accelerazione proprio nella parte finale Il movimento discendente viene arrestato da una formazione Tvåzers. Notiamo che la seconda candela della formazione una doji che, insieme alla Candela precedente, forma en harami cross di inversione rialzista Jag prezzi risalgono, tio år senare, och jag har aldrig haft en nyanställning, men det är inte så mycket, Ljusstråle, segelstråle och snedställd underlag för att stödja molto forte. La formazione Pincett botten, elektroforzata dal precedente mönster harami, då originalet är en propriär inversion di tendenza. Di seguito invece il titolo Assicurazioni Generali con una formazione pincett topp rafforzata dalla formazione det är en stor del av dig. Jag är inte en grafisk person och jag är mycket säker på det Tenuto movimento rialzista che viene arrestato dal nostro mönstret. Nel grafico che segue infine vidiamo il titolo Enel en livello settimanale Qui abbiamo una figura pincett topp och mörkt moln täcke che insieme generano en signifikant inversione del movimento rialzista. Non raro incontrare questa figura su minimi e massimi di mercato e, kommer vidiamo, se elforhandlaren är inte förformad när du kommer tillbaka, det är ett mönster som du kan göra för att göra det. Det kommer att bli en del av det mesta av mönstret, för att stoppa det, så mycket som möjligt. Operazioni ribassiste short. I CFD sono prodotti a leva Il handel med CFD potrebbe är inte tillfredsställande per tutti e pu determinare perdite che eccedono jag har för avsevärt tillförlitlig för en övergripande kompresso jag är intresserad av att ge incorrere. IG utan kommersiell verksamhet i IG Markets Ltd , London, Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London, EC4R 2YA IG Markets Ltd, autorizzata e regolat En dalla FCA i Londra n 195355 är en 72-årig registret för Imprese di Investimento Comunitarie con Succursale tenuto dalla CONSOB 06233800967 IG Italia har sitt säte i Via Paolo da Cannobio 33, 20122 Milano, Italien. Le informerar om att inte presentera sin egen adress En hemvist i landet och staten i Amerika och i Belgien. Den informerade inte om att den nuvarande webbplatsen inte är avsedd att innehålla alla utdelningar, eller alla som deltar i den lokala organisationen i fråga om upprättande av uppgifter om utlämnande av utlåtanden eller utbetalning av kontoutdrag Lokal tillämplig. Jag CFD sono prodotti en levande handel med CFD-potten är inte lämplig för att du ska bestämma dig för att du ska vara säker på att du ska investera i inlämningsuppgifterna för att du ska kunna kompensera mig för att du ska kunna göra en bra affär. Försäljnings Forex med pincett. Pincetterna är ljusstakeformationer som väsentligen visar marknadsomvandlingsområden Med andra ord är de ljusstake rev ersal mönster. Det finns två typer av Tweezer mönster När Tweezer finns i slutet av en långvarig uptrend, är det känt som Tweezer Top När Tweezer finns efter en långvarig downtrend, då är det känt som Tweezer Bottom Tweezer toppar är därför baisse reversal ljusstake mönster medan Tweezer bottnar är hausseformiga reversal ljusstake mönster. Tweezer är i huvudsak en dubbel ljusstake formation. The Tweezer topp är ett baisse reverseringsmönster och utseendet på en Tweezer topp på toppen av en uptrend ger en indikation på att Tillgången i fråga är på väg att vända nedåt. Tweezer Bottom är ett ljusstickmönster som består av två ljusstakar, men i det här fallet är det ett hausseffektivt omvänd mönster. Utseendet på en Tweezer-botten i botten av en nedåtgående trend är en indikation på att en Vändning till uppsidan är en högst sannolikt händelse. Hur bildas pincettarna och hur vet vi att marknaden kommer att vända om pincetterna förefaller Låt oss undersöka ea Ch av pincettarna efter varandra. Tweezer Top Som vi nämnde tidigare består Tweezer Top av två ljusstakar enligt följande. Det första ljuset i Tweezer Top ljusstakeformationen, även kallat Dag 1-ljuset, är ett hausstarkt ljus. Det består av en lång kropp och en kort skugga under kroppen. Detta ljus är en återspegling av den tidigare trenden, eftersom den är hausse i naturen Även om säljare försökte driva marknaden lägre, köpte köparna fortfarande, skickade tillgången till en ny hög. Därför har stearinljuset ingen övre skugga nära och det finns en lägre skugga som var säljarna försökte tvinga Marknaden nedåt. Det andra ljuset i Tweezer Top ljusstakeformationen kallas även dagens ljus 2 och är ett baisse ljus som har samma öppna pris som det slutliga höga priset på dag 1 ljuset. Här ser vi att säljare helt tar över för att tvinga marknaden I den utsträckning att det låga priset inte är för långt från det snabba priset och både låga och slutna priser på detta dag 2 ljus ligger långt under dagsljusets ljus 1 Detta är en tydlig indikation på att säljare har tagit över och Tvingade en nedåtriktad trendomvandling. Här är vad en Tweezer Top ser ut. Tweezer topp med tillstånd av. Tweezer Bottom består av följande två ljusstakar. Det första ljuset kallas också för dag 1 ljuset. Det är hausstarkt i naturen med en lång kropp och en kort skugga som ligger ovanpå kroppen. Det är bara motsatsen till Dag 1-ljuset i Tweezer-toppen. Detta ljus är också en återspegling av den tidigare trenden, vilket är en nedåtgående trend. Även om köpare försökte höja priserna , Säljare var st Det går inte att köra priserna ner till nya låga. Därför har Dag 1-ljuset samma låga och slutliga priser, vilket visar varför det inte finns någon lägre skugga. Det andra ljuset är också känt som Dag 2-ljuset. Det är baisse i naturen och dess öppningspris är detsamma som slutkursen för Dag 1-ljuset. Det här ljuset är det bakre ljuset som indikerar att köpare har kommit för att kapacera förfaranden i Marknaden Det faktum att dagarna i dag 2 ljuset är mycket högre än dagens ljusstarka ljus är ett mått på styrkan på marknadsförflyttningen som initierats av köparna. Bilden nedan visar hur en Bottle Bottom ser ut. Tweezer Bottom courtesy Of. TRADE SETUPS I det här avsnittet kommer vi nu att visa exakt hur man handlar med Tweezer Tops och Tweezer Bottoms. Steg 1 Erkännande Det första steget i handel med Tweezer-mönstren är erkännande Traden måste kunna känna igen mönstren när de kommer fram Tweezer mönster skiljer sig lätt ut av det faktum att de två ljusen i Tweezer Top har lika höga nivåer, medan det andra ljuset har en mycket lägre låg. Lyserna i Tweezer Bottom har lika låga nivåer, men dagen 2 Stearinljus har mycket högre höjder. Steg 2 Vad och hur man handlar Tvåzern är ett mönster som inte behöver någon annan bekräftelse ljusstake för näringsidkaren att utföra handeln Det faktum att det andra ljuset överskrider det första ljusets öppning i riktning mot omkastning är tillräcklig indikation på signalstyrkan utifrån en återkopplingsbekräftelse. Således är alla handlarbehov att öppna handeln i omkastningsriktningen med endast dessa bekräftelser. För en Tweezer-topp stöds ingången när Priset eller Tweezer Top ligger på en motståndsnivå Motståndet kan vara i form av Tweezer Top testning av en tidigare obruten marknad hög eller ljusstaken bildas vid en motståndsvridningspunkt b Det finns indikatorer som bekräftar flytten så Som användningen av en överköpt överlämnad indikator som den stokastiska oscillatorn. I detta fall är närvaron av ett Tweezer Top-mönster när marknaden överköpts en bra indikator att gå s hort. Here är en representation av dessa inställningar på diagrammen. I det här diagrammet ser vi att pincettstearinljusmönstret bildades samtidigt som Stochastics-indikatorn massivt överköptes med ett värde av 91 97 Detta var en tydlig indikation för näringsidkaren För att öppna en kort handel vid öppningen av nästa ljus efter Tweezer Top ljusstakeformationen. Inträdet för en sådan handel som vi har sagt bör vara vid ljusets öppning efter Tweezer Top. Slutförlusten bör helst vara inställd på ett område som ligger något över toppen av Tweezer Top, medan vinstmålet bör sättas på ett dynamiskt sätt. Handlaren kan bestämma sig för att gå ut på nästa stödområde eller ett område där ett ljusstickmönster eller diagrammönster indikerar att en hausseformad vändning skulle uppstå. a För en Tweezer-botten bekräftas handeln om tvåzerbottnen är belägen inom ett prisstödsområde. Prisstöd kan hittas i form av tvåzerbotten som finns vid en svängpunkt som upp värderas som ett stöd eller om ljusstaken bildas i ett område där tillgångens pris har gjorts lågt under det senaste förflutna, vilket var obrutet men testat flera gånger. b. Handelsinträde bekräftas även om en indikator som stokastikoscillatorn visar Att marknaden överlåtits Andra indikatorer som också bekräftar prisomkastningar kan också användas. Inträdet för en handel baserad på Tweezer Bottom är vid ljusets öppning efter Tweezer-bildningen. Stoppförlusten bör ställas till ett område under Lows of Tweezer Bottom, medan vinstmålpunkten bör ställas in på ett antal sätt. Dessa skulle inkludera ett motståndsområde eller ett område där det finns ett ljusstickmönster eller diagrammönster som skulle indikera att en hausseformad omkastning håller på att ske Få vägledning om dessa från ögonblicksbilden nedan. Här kan vi se att Tweezer-bottenen bildades samtidigt som Stokastics-oscillatorn var på en grovt överlämnad nivå på 10 17 Inträdet här var prett y rakt framåt Men precis som vi anförde måste utgångspunkten för en sådan handel slås in i en position när vi ser att prisrörelsen i handelsriktningen inte längre kan upprätthållas. I det här diagrammet ser vi en bearish harami som bildas vid toppen av Tweezer Bottom s trend, vilket är en tydlig indikation på att handeln bör avslutas vid denna tidpunkt. Se hur priset började komma ner igen när bearish harami var på plats. När man jämfört med andra ljusstake mönster är pincett relativt sällsynt Men när de bildas kan de enkelt användas för att välja ut lönsamma handelsmöjligheter på marknaden. Nästa gång du ser pincett på marknaden, kommer den här artikeln att fungera som en referenspunkt som gör att du kan veta exakt vad du ska göra. Författarens åsikter är helt egna. Tweezer Bottoms Candlestick Pattern. The pincettbottenmönstret består av två individuella forexstearinställningar. Stearinljus Det första ljuset är antingen bullish eller baisse och förekommer helst i slutet av ett betydande tryck ner i pris Detta ljus representerar en slutlig ökning nedåt i pris med ett misslyckande tillbaka från lows. Confirmation Candle det andra ljuset är ett hausstarkt ljus vars låga wick eller topppris nått matchar exakt eller nästan exakt, Det första ljusets ljus. Ju längre ljuset av bekräftelsen lyser desto starkare är signalen, eftersom detta innebär större avstötning från nedgången. SYKOLOGI OCH GRUNDLÄGGNINGAR. Pincettens bottenmönster sätter vanligtvis upp i slutet av ett drag i pris, oavsett om det Flytta är en del av en långsiktig trend eller en kort sikt retracement De två scenarierna är. När det uppstår i slutet av en lång sikt i pris det signalerar utmattning av utbudet av säljare och att dra in på marknaden för köpare I detta skede kommer köparna att vara mer benägna att komma in i marknaden på erbjudandet av ett valutapar på relativt låga nivåer. I en klassisk tjurbjörnskamp tjurarna råder och priset ligger nära toppen av bekräftelsen stearinljus och högre än öppet för bekräftelsestearen. Pincettbotten kan också förekomma i en uptrend när priset temporärt återflyttas, helst till en stödnivå. Denna temporära flyttning kan bero på att köpare tar vinst, säljare flyttar in på marknaden vid relativt uppblåsta priser eller bara normal konjunkturutmattning eftersom inköpsorderna tappar ut. Därför går priset till en nivå där köparna är redo att återigen gå in på marknaden och pressa priset upp igen. TRADE ENTRY STOP LOSS. You kan ange antingen en buy stop order 2 till 5 pips framför det högsta priset som bekräftelse ljuset nått, eller om du är säker på att du är upptagen kan du gå aggressivt med en order på marknaden. hur som helst, din stopp ska gå 2 till 5 pips bakom den låga av pincettbotten Det här är en grov guide endast i volatila marknader du kan välja att förlänga stoppet längre ut och för mycket högre tidsramar som det dagliga du kan ställa in stoppar 5 till 20 eller ännu mer pi Ps bakom det låga av pincettbotten. Den större det haussefulla ljuset som bekräftar mönstret, desto mer sannolikt pris kommer att röra sig. Men om bekräftelsestearen är extremt lång kan du ha problem med att komma in med en rimlig belöning till riskfaktor. Exempelvis kan du behöva ställa in en stoppförlust på 50 pips för att ställa stoppet bekvämt bakom det låga av pincettbotten. Om det finns ett starkt område av motstånd bara 20 pips över nuvarande prisåtgärd kan du anse att detta är låg sannolikhet Handel och vidarebefordra opportunity. Forex ljusstakar är MARKETPULSEN som definierar nuvarande pris Åtgärd och marknadssensimentet som driver prisåtgärder Min ljusstake kurs täcker de sju sakerna du absolut måste veta om det här grundläggande byggstenen med prisåtgärder. Det inkluderar AuthenticFX Forex Candlestick Glossary Det perfekta verktyget för dig att behärska ljusstake mönster med.
Thursday, 26 October 2017
Retail Forex Handelsstötar Of Adrenalin
Aktierna stiger framför FOMC, Osäkerhet Regerar Supreme. Kinesiska aktier sätter i en storstorlek i slutet av timmen och hälften av handeln. UK Löneökningar skrivs ut på 2 9, återuppliva förhoppningar om inflationen i brittiska ekonomi. Med FOMC på docket i morgon bör handlare börja planera sin exponering för frisläppandet. Samtliga marknader och positioner kan vara mottagliga för en märkbar up-tick i volatilitet.1 Senesessionen var tillbaka med Gusto I gårdagens stycke noterade vi hur De sena mötespriserna som har blivit vanliga på Shanghai och Shenzhen Composites var märkbart under de senaste dagarna Tja igår kvällen kom dessa teman tillbaka med aggression Efter att ha spenderat mycket av mötet med treading vatten, rakade kinesiska lager högre med en timme och tjugo minuter kvar i sessionen För Shanghai Composite var detta ett kritiskt steg eftersom indexet tillbringade hela sessionens handel runt den 3000 psykologiska nivån som vi har diskuterat som lin e-i-sanden support. The Shanghai Composite shcomp stängdes med en 4 89 gain medan Shenzhen Composite szcomp satt i en 6 52 lutning Endast 12 bestånd av de över 1.100 frågorna på indexet var nere på dagen Denna styrka ledde de flesta marknader över hela Asien är högre och vinster har kommit till många europeiska frågor samt amerikanska aktieindex futures före det öppna. Med ett viktigt Fed-möte i kalendern för imorgon eftermiddag, var mycket försiktig över att jaga priser inför en så stor release Ju mer förväntade en release är desto mer sannolikt kommer vi att se ljudet före data och några investerare har letat efter det här mötet i tre år när Fed började nämna september 2015 som måldatum för en kurshöjning. Det är också sannolikt att vi får se näringsidkare som försöker positionera sig inför stora utgåvor Det innebär att de kan sälja av långa positioner eller köpa för att täcka shorts så att de inte bär lika mycket exponering i en riskabel period på marknaden. Detta kan c Upprepa högljudda signaler som handlarna ångrar sig efter faktiskt. Tänk på att i handel är möjligheterna oändliga Kapitalet är absolut inte Det är mycket bättre att missa en möjlighet än att förlora kapital eftersom det kommer att bli fler möjligheter imorgon, Och kapitalet växer inte ensam. 2 Brittiska lönekostnaderna hoppas på inflationen Efter brittisk inflation tryckt platt igår 1 för Core Inflation, sålde Sterling sålunda som stigningshopp försvagades ytterligare för den brittiska ekonomin och det kom efter Kristin Forbes kommenterar på fredag som sa att vandringar i Storbritannien skulle vilja komma snarare än senare. Men i loppet i morse tryckte UK Wage Growth en 2 9 vinst som byggde tillbaka förhoppningar om en räntehöjning tidigt nästa år Sterling har Sätta in en utomstående rally sedan frisläppandet, med GBP-dollar flyttas högre med.100 pips medan GBP JPY har satt in. Utrymmet av en sådan situation är att i en värld som ser de flesta ekonomier påbörja en lösare penningpolitik, det finns få valutor som ser attraktiva ut för att köpa mot förväntad svaghet. Amerikanska dollar var den enda outlieren från juli 2014 som leder till andra kvartalet i år, då avtagande QE och förestående räntehöjningar ledde investerare att köpa dollarn. - hand, vi hade svaghet i GBP och EUR, eftersom denna penningpolitiska dikotomi förväntades fortsätta att öka GBP-dollarn minskade med över 2 500 pips under det här flyget och EUR USD sjönk med över 3 000 då investerare sålde Euro s före EU-QE i Gynnar amerikanska dollarens styrka. Med allt vad som händer om upplyftning, gradvis stigning och dataförlängning har bilden för USA och Federal Reserve blivit molnigare. Om Storbritannien kan stärka den ekonomiska styrkan under de närmaste månaderna kan detta belysa attraktiviteten för långa GBP mot valutor som förväntas försvagas på QE och lösare penningpolitiken. Utarbetad med Marketscope Trading Station II utarbetad av James Stanley.3 FOMC Strategi Alla i finansmarknaden har blivit översvämmade med media runt morgondagens Fed-möte, till den punkt där även kritiska utskrifter som denna morgon s amerikanska CPI-nummer eller igår s Advance Retail Sales har blivit marginaliserade medan mycket av världen väntar på Fed. Detta är så rörigt av Ett beslut som jag någonsin sett, eftersom data eller marknader i det förflutna ganska visat centralbanken vad de borde göra med att fel bara uppenbaras långt efter det faktumet. Gilla Greenspan-vandringssätten för långsamt för att kompensera irrationell överflöd i lager under Tech Boom som snabbt blev Tech Bust eller vandringshastigheter för långsamt för att kyla bort bostadsboomen som skapade en enorm bubbla inom den amerikanska ekonomin. På andra sidan har Fed antagligen varit för långsam för att sänka priserna för att kompensera techbusten eller ekonomisk kollaps, till den punkt där vi var tvungna att få akutmottagande möten för att kasta in 425 punkter 4 25 värda sänkningar på ett år mellan december 2007 och december 2008. De stora skiljer sig åt Ence är att den här gången leder Fed vägen Ingen i världen vet hur detta kommer att visa sig. Och även om du visste vad Ms. Yellen skulle säga imorgon, skulle det inte vara möjligt att förutse hur exakt marknaden skulle prisa - i den här informationen gör morgondagens Fed möte en dubbel entender av risk Och medan det här kan känna sig spännande eller ge en extra puls av adrenalin på morgonen, handlar det professionellt om att vara upphetsad. Det handlar om att vara professionell. Så om du inte ha en strategi som kan hantera din risk under de närmaste dagarna, är det starkt rekommenderat att du slår lätt. Det här är den snabba banan av ekonomi, och medan priserna kan sätta i stora drag mycket snabbt, visar egenskaper hos framgångsrika näringsidkare hur de flesta detaljhandeln Näringsidkare gör sämre i flyktiga förhållanden. En av de bästa känslorna i världen är kontanterstark efter en stor nedgång som 2008 så att du kan kämpa in och köpa när priserna är i rockbottstöd. Visserligen vann strategin inte jobbetUt varje gång, eftersom priserna kan komma upp utan ditt deltagande och du är kvar på händerna, men om du får möjlighet att vara försiktig eller ta en förlust, bör handlare alltid välja den minsta resistansvägen. DailyFX ger förex nyheter och teknisk analys på Trenderna som påverkar de globala valutamarknaderna. Denna sida undersöker strategiska tillvägagångssätt på handelsmarknaderna från början till deras utveckling och sedan ansökan och inkluderar en Forex Trading Toolbox Marknaderna är riskabla Leveraged trading innebär stor risk för förlust. Den här sidan går tillbaka till tidiga dagar på webbplatsen och ger idéer och observationer från Forex trading före, under och efter finanskrisen 2008. Men den innehåller också i slutänden mer generella obeservations på marknadstillståndet som fortfarande uppdateras från tid till annan . På den här sidan är tillvägagångssätt som jag har tänkt på hur man handlar så direkt som möjligt på marknaden, med rötter sommaren 2008. De syftar till att t O fånga regelbundenhet på marknaden som jag ser när handeln över tiden. Den senaste uppdateringen är i slutet av sidan. De är inte algoritmer för handel, snarare en logg om min undersökning av denna marknad. De kan betraktas som försök att sammanställa observerat beteende via funktionalitet för att möjliggöra taktiska beslut som fattas av mig, oavsett vad jag vill ta till handel, till exempel de idéer som diskuteras på handelssidan. Vad jag menar är ett sätt att få en bättre känsla för handelsmarknadernas komplexitet. Jag startade den här sidan 2010 Tidiga strategier återspeglar vad jag använde under krisen i slutet av 2008, eller precis innan jag sätter dem ihop med något jag kallade en Forex Trading Toolbox, tenderar jag att se strategier på marknader som kontextuella, det vill säga strategier tenderade att använda tekniska metoder, men fortfarande med en kartläggning bias senare strategier eller Analytics som jag kallar dem här verkar mer abstrakt, eftersom jag har flyttat mot en mer pris rörelse dri vän-tillvägagångssätt Men jag gjorde någonting så här från början, eftersom piptryckssättet som jag använde i upp till NY-marknaden öppet för att försöka mäta om ett riktningsdrag var på, tittade på hur priserna förändrades. Piptrycket tittade helt enkelt på den takt som ljusets kropp ökade eller minskade på kortare tidsramar, med ett öga på RSI, för att leta efter undervärderade marknadstillstånd som ett potentiellt filter. Men det var en kvalitativ visuella tillvägagångssätt med beslut om vad jag såg Således ledde det till en uppfattning om handel på Forex-marknaden samt en uppfattning om att se på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden som en slags mätare för andra marknader. Jag försöker också generera analytiska kommentarer från tid till annan Det vill säga att de kommer att vara knutna till vad jag ser på en given tid. Det kan sägas att vilken strategi som är och vilken kommentar som är kan vara liknande om man fokuserar på prisåtgärder. Men även här arbetar jag med antagandet att det finns regelbundenhet över tiden och över par. Analytics nedan försöker fånga min känsla av vilka metoder som kan vidtas för att hitta värdeskillnader Det är utvecklingsarbetet, för att genom att handla nära marknaden behöver a ny hjälp från kunskap man har sammanställt från marknaden om man vill försöka optimera den kapaciteten att hitta skillnader och använda dem. Varför skulle man vilja handla nära marknaden Tja, för det första om marknaden alltid vinner, varför slåss den är ett slagfält, men en mer som bakom fiendens linjer Tänk på det här. Två kommandon skickas bakom fiendens linjer, för att överleva i obestämd tid En har en gevär, den andra bara hans eller hennes wits Det är en djärv djungelstilarena som överlever den längsta. Låt mig notera att jag använder en militärmetafor här, delvis för att marknadernas grundläggande karaktär är antagonistisk, eftersom det är en budförsäljningsmarknad, särskilt i Forex där det finns intensiv höghastighetsarbitrage på någon skillnad som gör att den fungerar på en dagshandel ram men det gör också fara. Men den här metaforen handlar om att hitta ett sätt att gå med en hållbar medvetenhet inom detta enorma slag som drivs av stora summor pengar och program som försöker hitta små störningar som man kan notera från strate Gies, det här är något att leta efter som en människa också. Jag tenderar därför att närma sig Forex trading som killen utan pistolen. Med figurfönstret kan man bli slarvig eller slut på ammunition, men man skulle noga välja om det finns Var valet jag har tittat på sätt att närma sig Forex på ett sådant sätt att man vill göra det med hållbar medvetenhet. Det här handlar verkligen om att lära sig, det är överlevnaden Är det en överlevnad att kunna använda geväret som om Det var din wits, ja det är en mycket intressant fråga. Det är dock lärandet att överleva också. Forexmarknaden kan betraktas som särskilt problematisk eftersom man verkligen inte kan se vad marknaden säger eller hur man går med Det är därför det är som den här kommandotalogin Det kan säga något väldigt komplext, som min blogg har undersökt, det kan inte vara reducerbart till överförbara uttalanden. Eller det kan vara väldigt enkelt genom att det är slumpmässigt, med temporärt slumpmässiga ögonblick När stora pengar kan driva marknaden för att skapa Te-skillnader som skärs i stycken genom arbitrage På den här sidan är jag väldigt agnostisk om vad marknaden är, men jag tittar på vad det kan vara att se om det kan beställa handel. Någonriktad rörelse. Strategierna här tenderar att se ut för sätt att anpassa sig till marknaden, t. ex. till regelbundenhet och angrepp endast vid behov och försöka hitta ett annat sätt än att attackera. Man kan förvänta sig att oavsett riktning ses, kan ställa sig mot stödmotstånd, men man vet inte hur länge det här kommer Var och huruvida det är en paus i en fortsättning, en omvänd studsning, en konsolidering eller volatilitet. En hel del teknisk analys baseras, det verkar mig, på stallfaktorn, med lösningar för tidsfaktorn och riktningsfaktorn som Kan kanske göra med marknadsdynamik. Strategierna nedan försöker leta efter varför dessa händelser kan hända, dvs ett annat sätt att titta på marknadsdynamiken. Om man tittar på teknisk analys som en gång hedrad heuristik för att visa stallfaktorn, kan man använda dem med vit H något att hantera dynamiken på marknaden. Är det möjligt för Forex trading att vara en trevlig upplevelse eller är det alltid en slog genom djungeln. Jag föreställer mig dock att kommandot som överlever kanske också har hittat sin resa intressant och kanske lysande Sinnet på ett sätt verkar inte kämpa för saker självklart och i det potentiella engagemanget kan det vara någon form av mjukhet och kanske fördel. För mig att stanna i Forex har det inneburit att tänka om vad det innebär att involvera sig i vad som kan vara en Icke-riktad marknad, lång medellång eller kort sikt Om aktier slutar att vara så här, på lång sikt, då kan det här vara fråga att bli frågan generellt. I alla händelser är det möjligt att realisera att det här kan vara en marknad som styrs av enorma pengaflöden rörde sig på alla möjliga sätt. Men det finns inget bättre jag har hittat för att återställa en känsla av perspektiv och självvärde än att tänka igenom marknaden och också inse hur i praktiken slumpmässigt kan det vara riktlinjer och hur d Effektivt är det att komma in på en, när de finns. Skulle man vara upprörd om att bli fast i en regnstorm, ja, för dess effekt kanske, men inte i ansvarsfullt skick. Framställningar genom bullret. Marknaden måste vara representerad och Representation Jag och andra använder är diagrammen Men jag försöker att se bortom diagrammen, samtidigt som de håller dem nära. Jag gillar att handla direkt på diagrammen med ljusstakar. En ljusstake är själv en slags indikator, men det är Mer om mönster Jag försöker och undviker mönster i sig, av skäl som jag utforskat i bloggen. Jag använder ljusstaken mer som ett sätt att representera förändringar i momentum och mönster i form av momentförändringar, knutna till regelbundenhet i hur marknaden Behandlar order och förändringar i värdering. Jag finner i daghandel att indikatorer har bullerproblem som jag skulle säga nu, att längre sikt bullerproblemet minskar. Det kan bero på att alla bestående eller återgenererade strukturer bara är någonsin långsiktiga feno Menon, eftersom det bara kommer från långsiktiga källor, dvs företagstillväxt. När bloggen har undersökt, hur det här översätts till Forex är en annan fråga, och långsiktig riktning här kan bara induceras av räntedifferenser i kombination med en viss typ av simulerad interberoende tillväxt som skapar riktningsstabilitet, som snabbt kan kollapsa. Jag misstänker att aktiemarknaden i sig bevisade detta. På lång sikt menar jag att tiden för tillväxten är viktig i marknadsvärderingar Men den här strukturen är inte strikt Adhered to i aktier men det kan ges en slags tvätt i Forex. Market Experiments. I har några experimentella tekniker nedan som såg på att hitta väsentligen regelbaserade tillvägagångssätt för långsiktiga kartor Det är en använder en indikator uppsättning att göra en handel Inte en signal, men en handel, inmatad sig eftersom det här är lång sikt. Jag gjorde lite test på detta och det verkade intressant Men som många saker kan det ha använt sammanställd kunskap med n själv. För att övervinna buller på dagens handelsramar verkar det logiskt, men mer specifikt från 6 år som arbetar härvidt ett särskilt intresse för mig, att handla utan indikatorer alls, på 15 min - 1 min och ibland ticka, Det kan visa fördröjning av momentum För detta måste sinnet vara klart, eller åtminstone väldigt strukturerat. Om det inte blir du whipsawed till noll. Varför, såväl som jag noterar i bloggen, är bashandlingen på Forex-marknaden bevisad på korta villkor Detta kan skilja sig från aktiemarknaden Så från rimligt tidigt på själva krisen har jag tittat på strukturella regelbundenhet på korta termer den starka medvetenhetsstrategin. Från min erfarenhet av detta gör det Forex lite mjukare och ökar intresset, men kanske inte nödvändigtvis vara en vinstorienterad tillvägagångssätt, om man inte kan arbeta på avvägning, det är att fånga lite vinstbett och låt det inte sköljas bort i en förlust. Dock tenderar man att undvika whipsawed trading, men det Är alltid en risk i så nära rters Tricket för detta är den vedvarande medvetenheten, med frågan om hur länge detta kan upprätthållas. Det intressanta är att leta efter dem längre sikt, det är något jag letat efter i min blogg, och detta är kongruent med Användning av indikatorer med tidsramar som är temporärt beställd struktur. Given ovanstående kommentar kan man förvänta sig en viss ordning som bevisar sig i vissa fall på lång sikt. Detta kan potentiellt handlas Men om det bevisar sig på temporärt slumpmässiga sätt har det samma problem Med all trading. Press of those Pips. So i Forex dag trading diagram information är inte nödvändigtvis klart på grund av dessa bullerproblem, för en Så jag letar efter upprepande strukturmönster jag använder ljusstakar till exempel inte bara på grund av mönster, men för att de kan berätta för mig när linjära prissättningsdrag börjar och slutar och hur ömtåliga de är. Om man tittar på en ljusstake själv på en dagshandel, säger 15min kan man få en känsla av styrkan I takt med att program och handelsmän staplar upp beställningar, kan man till exempel se en uppbyggnad av rörelse i stearinljuset. När när orderen blir rensade kan man se en minskning av detta tryck När försäljningsorderna börjar stapla upp, man kan se destabiliseringen av det långa draget. Det här är en del av den allra första handelsmetoden som jag använde, jag kallade den piptryck. Det betyder att de signalerar underliggande marknadsprocess, man oroar sig inte för vad inmatningen är, man söker bara efter Tecknen på det, men självklart håller man ett öga på ditt nyhetsflöde. Långsiktiga ljus och indikatorer kan visa djupare processer på marknaden, det är en del av utforskningen av den här webbplatsen. Jag letar efter orsaker för att upprepa strukturella mönster, som jag finner I marknadsfunktion utforskas på denna sida Eftersom dagens handel är snabb, letar jag efter processen som uttrycket för detta. Kvalitativa indikationer. I enlighet med argumenten i resten av sajten är de kvalitativa. Eftersom de är utformade för handel på marknaden , de är inte Om siffror Varför är det Det går bort från att sätta prismål och utgångspunkter. Det är inget fel med det här, men mina argument är att Forex-marknaden inte generellt gör en linjär beräkning, och vad beräkningen är, kanske inte är något Man kan approximera eller mer viktigt värdera sig som en förutsägbar värdeskillnad över tiden. I aktier gäller en liknande fråga, det är inte möjligt att komma till ekvationerna som kan reglera marknadsbeteendet. Men man kan ignorera dessa, antar marknadsfunktionerna på ett visst sätt Och analysera företag och till och med bättre uppsättningar av företag. En har en värdedifferens baserad på aktiemarknadsfunktionalitet man har en rimlig grund för att tro att marknaden kommer att värdera dessa företag, eftersom de växer, vilket hjälper dem att växa. Det vill säga den olinjära av marknaden blir reducerad till en linjäritet som är oriktig och kan vara slumpmässig, volatilitet och förstörelse. Men det är något. Alla tenderar att handla. Men även innan krisen fanns tecken t Hat det här förändrades En marknad som inte har denna säkerhet i riktning över tiden är en handelsmarknad. Men det är min uppfattning att handel på lång sikt riktning envägs att se investeringar är fortfarande en kvalitativ process, eftersom kapitalets kausalitet Marknaden är dold bakom osynliga ekvationer Den statiska strukturen av uppsättningar av uttalanden kartlägger dynamiken på marknaden på ett sätt som bara är kvalitativt. Men jag kan inte enligt min erfarenhet även göra detta i Forex, orsakssambandet mellan analyserbara numeriska data och marknaden är För lös, utom i oförutsägbara tider Andra kan vara oense med detta och denna åsikt, som alla mina åsikter är alltid föremål för granskning och förändring. Val Differentials. Given här söker man därför efter värdeskillnader som en funktion av marknadsbeteendet för att signalera början och slutet av omsättbara värdeskillnader Vi letar efter en statisk struktur i dynamiken på marknaden själv. Nu kanske vi behöver en separation, det är marknadsdynamik wil Jag bryter mot en stabil struktur och en inifrån den är iboende instabil Men sådan är Forex och faktiskt att den statiska strukturen av uttalanden härrör från marknadsdynamik. En ytterligare fråga är vad Forex gör med inmatade värderingar, överskriv dessa i viss mening egna värderingsprocesser eller är forex i sig själv ett uttryck för produktionen av marknaden själv Min känsla av detta är att Forex har sina egna interna värderingsprocesser. Man kan alltid tillämpa analys från marknadsstruktur, till exempel notera effekten av barriärmöjligheter vid stora siffror eller det faktum att regeringarna inte tolererar vissa numeriska värderingar. Men den allmänna förutsättningen här är att handel med att hitta regelbundenhet och samtidigt minimera alla de saker som leder till felaktiga handelsförslag. Det kan vara att alla tenderar att program, men jag tror att det finns en kant för människan, men det betyder att tänka lite som ett program, men bara lite, upp och tills programmen kan jämföras med kognitiv mänskliga krafter. Kapitalmarknadens karaktär sedan krisen som Hardanalytics Blog har diskuterat kan göra dessa analyser användbara där, men var vänlig notera att dessa analyser inte är avsedda för handel med riktiga pengar, de är bara för illustration. De kommer direkt från min egen erfarenhet av Forex och aktiemarknaden. Problemet med indikatorer anser enligt min mening kanske inte att använda dem, det är hur och varför du använder dem, det är kontextuellt, vilket är vad den här sidan handlar om. Men jag är medveten om kritik Av teknisk analys, men jag håller öppet sinne om det. Jag använde det inte, men handlade direkt från diagrammet, till en början på grund av denna kritik, men jag studerade allt jag kunde om dem, jag fann dem användbara för daghandel under vissa omständigheter men svårt att generalisera. Jag tror att de kan sammanställa marknadens funktionalitet, men det kan vara en del av funktionaliteten i vissa fall. Analyserna är utformade för att belysa funktionaliteten hos Forex marknaden i parti Cular. FOREX TRADING TOOLBOX. Tanken är att varje strukturell formation på marknaden kräver ett annat verktyg. Marknaden uppvisar kärnprocessen för byggnadsnedbrytning och byggande. Konstruktionen är regelbundenheter som avlägsnas genom antagonism och enkelt sveps undan av stora pengarflöden. Man måste upptäcka förekomsten av dessa regelbundenheter och deras rivning. Nedbrytningsprocessen är utmärkt att handla på, det är till exempel följderna av en RSI-divergenssignal som följs genom. Denna verktygslåda innehåller metoder för sätt att göra detta. Obs! Dessa är Högriskhandel som försöker interagera spåra marknadsstruktur, i en mening att simulera hur stora pengar handlar Det här är delvis punkten på den här webbplatsen, för att hitta analyser för att göra detta. För mig är det baserat på den praktiska observationen att mest Farlig handel med Forex hoppar in i en trend, som i Forex i viss utsträckning försöker handla som stora pengar, men för sent Vid den tid det är synligt, tre nd är normalt på väg att sönderfalla under sin egen vikt, det vill säga order motsatt riktningen. Varför kallar jag dem tillväxtprocesser Från den struktur som kan vara uppenbar i diagramdata, i viss utsträckning Men det är mer att de underliggande processerna för tillväxt verkar ha en order Detta verkade tydligt för mig från analysen av uppsättningar av finansiella rapporter. Så tillväxten handlar i huvudsak om struktur som består av väl sammanhängande strukturella element som införlivas med kartläggningsdata. Demolition handlar om hur marknaden avvisar sådana värderingar och skickar dem Till ett tillstånd av brist på order. Det kommer från det sätt jag såg marknaden före krisen och under den. Det var order innan men jag har undersökt i bloggen att det kan ha en simulerad tillväxtorder. Men även på en björnmarknad det finns alltid tillväxt Men det finns mycket av denna brist på order. Dessa tillväxtprocesser är instabila i Forex och om det är baserat på penningflöde kan de förångas som ingenting annat. Men motverka trendbranschen Är särskilt farliga i Forex eftersom de kan slå på dig med dödliga resultat. Punktet kring utforskningen på denna sida är att hitta ett sätt att få en rimlig grund för att göra en handel. Det är allt i Forex ser instabilt, vad gör du med instabilitet Tja, du kan leta efter stabilitet Oavsett om denna stabilitet kommer från stora pengar eller interna processer på marknaden eller marknaderna, är en annan sak utforskad på denna sida. Om du inte kan hitta stabilitet, rider du på marknaden. Växthantering kan ge en Typ av dold stabilitet, så att när man gör handeln kan man känna sig mer säker på att göra det och frågan blir då vad som slutar tillväxtprocesser. Analys 1-7 Funktionshandel. Analytisk 1 Tillväxtstrukturerad optimeringstest för förbyggnad. 1 Det är US Equity hours. yes - är det lunchtid dead. no - är det nära 11 00 pengaflöde Frankfurt nära eller 12 pengaflöde London nära 9 9 50 positionering av pengaflöde efter 3 30 money flow. no - leta efter ebb av pengar Flöde med en divergens på RSI efter dessa tider över t ex 10 .--- vi letar efter en symmetri mellan inducerade orderflödesförändringar och aktioner på aktiemarknaden. yes - se efter början på aktiemarknaden inducerad Elliott Waves i EUR USD Om det finns risk för Filtrera med något för att indikera order. - Om en stabil trend är redan på plats, antar en droppe kort efter 11 00, men en ökning före - se Analytic 5 - om en nedslående trend ned händer, leta efter en fortsättning , Men akta dig för studsar - se Analytisk 5. - Återställ gränsvärden när du ser tillväxten börjar igen och behåll dina gränsvärden om polariserad Fractal Efficiency-indikator visar att tillväxten fortfarande händer det platta. Den här analysen kommer från krisen 2008 och efteråt har jag nyligen återvänt till att kontrollera eget kapital och EUR USD tillsammans och jag har på min Hard Analytics Google plus-sida noterat några förändringar på marknaderna. Det grundläggande förhållandet kan dock ändras. Tips stabila EUR USD-aktieutvecklingen är riskabelt på grund av möjligheten att komma in på toppen och sedan bli piskad och eller vänta på en omkastning, vilket kanske inte händer. Dessa stabila trender verkar prisa i värderingar som de händer, varför skulle de då Omvänd, med undantag för starka tekniska eller nyhetsingångar Om du vill ha en omkastning måste du titta mer på kaskad droppar i värderingar eller flyktiga drag upp till orimliga värderingar. Om det inte är amerikanska aktieägarna letar du efter vad jag brukade ringa quantum skum efter amerikanska marknader stänger Det är inte kvantskum självklart, men jag använde denna analogi eftersom ministabila trender verkade bilda från ingenstans men av en annan typ än de ovanstående. Det verkade mycket tekniskt och oreferenterat, det kan man kalla riktning från överköpta och underköpta signaler, dvs värderingar hänvisade sig själva .--- vi antar en särskild koppling mellan EUR USD och den amerikanska aktiemarknaden som följd kanske på kapaciteten hos US equ Marknad utvecklades över många iterationer, för att hitta relativa värderingar. Detta kan möjliggöra samstämmighet mellan ett Forex-par och aktiemarknaden och dess grund i reell tillväxt i företagen. Pre-Japan och Pre-London är ett helt nytt bollspel jag skulle säga detta , Japan öppet blir mycket volatilt, men en trend kan vara i bevis i öppet öppet, som New York London öppet kan öppna hårt och skriva om vad som har hänt innan. Analytisk 2 Rider vågorna. Vad gör Forex ut som ett sätt att tjäna vinst, vilket betyder att vågorna på ett diagram ser ut som någonting kan rida, för att producera en inkomstström. Bloggen undersöker varför det inte är så. Det kan vara tillgängligt genom distribuerad problemlösning, en oerhört kraftfull metod inom ekonomi och Artificiell intelligens. I huvudsak använder du distribuerad dynamisk expertbaserad problemlösning för att hitta värdeskillnader och sändningsresultat till andra handlare i en återkopplingsprocess som ett parallellt program. Detta kan resultera i precision, vilket i Forex kan beskrivas som kapaciteten att peka när något är på väg att hända b vad det är Eller precisare .- a det finns en potentiell värdedifferens och b det kommer att vara tillräckligt stor och tillräckligt förlängd i tid för att göra det värt din medan det är en fråga om upptäckten, men kommer det att vara mer exakt än din egen insats Det beror på om det finns något att upptäcka i Forex, och om det är synligt. Problemet i Forex också, som rör sig med hög hastighet, är att få det beslutet att gå in när du har nått ett tröskelvärde för att tro att detta villkor är uppfyllt. Det är en separat fråga och täcker väl någon annanstans när det gäller handelspsykologi och attityd och kapitalisering. Tips Jag har testat tron att de intuitiva besluten att handla, att hoppa in, är tillrådliga. Från vad jag har upplevt kan du vara lika rätt som fel. Även om planeringen inte gör någon skillnad, vilket är möjligt, då åtminstone om du planerar att du har en rationale för att undersöka vad som hände Åtminstone startar du dig själv på en upptäcktsresa på denna enorma finansiella marknad. Analytisk 3 Money Flow Optimization Pre-Demolition. This är lämplig för alla instrument, men några är mer rena exempel på detta USD JPY och USD AUD är exempel på detta var 2010 .--- Se efter tecken på precision de tre testerna av ett motståndsnivå. fail - - Ebb av penningflöde karakteriserad av platå - Fällig droppe strukturerad av marknadsförare till nyckelpris nivåer t ex 85 - studsa när volatiliteten vid basen av droppe blir strukturerad, t. ex. triangelmönster - program aktivera och vänd uppåt, på ett mer gradvis sätt än drop. else - gå till Analytic 1. Tips De tre testen, de tre spikarna på de Toppen kan lika enkelt peka på en fortsättning. En möjlig ordning för dessa Analytics är 3,1 - men om 2 är en del av det, så 1,3 också. Analytisk 4 Förnedrivning. Denna analytiska letar efter möjligheten för en ytterligare droppe efter ett strukturerat drag nedåt. Mellan marknaden öppnas, är det mätbar längd mellan konsolideringar, vilket indikerar förekomsten av nästa reducerade våguppsättning. Om du inte tar ställning som är motsatt effekten av den senaste Analytic 3.Exit om den visar klart Tecken på analytisk 3, dvs strukturbrytning. Om inte - stanna med det, men antar strukturförfall. Tips Min favorithandel är den som faller efter ett tre test misslyckas på högt. De faller och faller, men du måste ta risken för att komma in nära toppen, eftersom de faller lätt kan bli en konsolidering innan en ny uppgång. Det här analytiska letar efter something to indicate what might happen. Analytic 5 Demolition. On EUR USD at 11 00 am New York Time This is based on order flow mechanics which tend to boost Euro in the 10 minutes up to 11 00 am Europe Market close and then precipitate a fall a few minutes after 11 00 This worked best for me around the crisis. If there is a structured trend in action for Euro, this seems to have much less probability of working By structured trend I mean crystalline directional patterns If there is a trend against Euro , it tends to precipitate a further fall If the market is neutral it can precipitate a new fall. It tends not to precipitate a growth process though That is I am making a distinction between growth and what it results in and crystalline patterns which ma y be a function of other inputs See Analytic 23 below for more elaboration of growth and crystalline patterns. Tip This is looking for surety about a fall, using market action in the equity market referenced to major changes that force directionality across equities But it seems to need coherence with the Forex market to work. Analytic 6 External Demolition Inputs. This is a look at significant price levels in terms of the analytics Significant price levels are those levels where one sees the possibility of regularity time and again. The idea is, growth processes which come and go in Forex bias the market towards stability This is designed for EUR USD and USD JPY The digits refer to the two digits at the end of the pair value.50 - growth breaker.15 - 25 - growth enabler.75 - 85 - growth enabler.00 - - no significance. Which means 00 is a level where antagonism is highly probable This is from observation, but one could say it is because 00 is highly controlled by market makers Their reactions are designed not to be tradable 75 - 85 seems more stable, perhaps because of the trading asymmetry in pairs . Tip I regard 50 as particularly important in Forex It seems to create a static wall, that imposes rejection below the level if coming from below Additionally 75- 85 can be seen as a barrier for many reasons in commodities as well Be very careful of trading a bounce on 00, it can easily become a sharp move down Check out past data of how the market moves through 00 If we regard this level as not significant for growth, we may in fact regard it as a risk area. Analytic 7 Post Demolition Construction Test for Demolition or Construction. Look at a range.--- look for support for growth, trendline upwards - make this a bias towards growth probability - look at the top half of the range only, does it exhibit growth structure or growth destruction look for the other analytics for it. If growth destruction check for external inputs to enable growth - bias towards going long. If not watch for effect of money flow and computer divergence signals to trigger a fall - highly bias towards short. If growth construction - --- bias towards going long, but remember the bias is always against this in the Forex market, growth is flash and is external as well as internal. The assumption here is pair asymmetry. Tip This is looking at a chart and seeing if a strong extended trend will end It seems more useful for extended long term trends such as recently with Gold or Silver But note even if the trend collapses, it can still climb to higher highs But in all trades at all time frames that final spurt can be risky, as it looks like it is enabling new growth, when in fact it is disabling the growth In this analytic we are looking at the structure of these charting movements to try and ascertain what is happening.- Return to Analytic 1.The Crisis, its aftermath, Divergence and Analytics 1-3.These ideas emerged from trades both in equities and Forex I made in the most extraordinary and revealing financial event, the crisis To a greater and lesser extent what happened was clear in the general economy, but in the markets it was perhaps more apparent. I do believe that what happened was a collapse of structure, but a structure created from oceans of money, of liquidity, the source of money flow, movabl e cash, supported in structures from interest rate differentials. That is too much money not grounded in growth processes for example company growth in the Dow In essence these collapsed and the money cascaded out. Support has been provided since by money pumped into markets from the government and by interest rate differentials maintained Growth is returning but it is very low level growth from the core elements of growth, the companies. However over time this is the best kind of supporting growth, less movable money, more invested money, in essence. What worked in the crisis from my observation was RSI divergence prices make higher highs and the indicator makes lower highs What this means is there is a dependable event, that programs and traders will try and push prices down. There are all sorts of reason why prices diverge, but one might say that if growth was the reason, then they tend to bounce and come back up again and go above those divergence highs. Inherent to the process is perhap s the most fundamental process of Forex, the reaction of prices at a RSI peak or low It happens at all level of detail, but is especially apparent at 1 min, as the programs constantly react and clear the price for a continuation. Divergence though biases this process and seems indicative of structure breaking or the end process of structure decay and when this more probably happens on longer time frames, relatively speaking, then it seems more in tune with inputs from the wider economy. The problem for trading is that prices can bounce and continue their way down One wants to find a likelihood for a bounce back up. So the idea is test for growth, or perhaps the solidity of it using Analytic 1 in tandem with RSI signals More money flow than growth, less chance of a bounce. These events happen anyway, but it might be asked is the market still prone to collapses like this One could ask if interest rate differentials simulate economic growth stability It could be suggested that these stabilizi ng forces come from the equity market hence Analytic 1.Thus we use Analytic 1 to test for their presence In the crisis these did not exist, hence the huge falls and the pure functionality of RSI divergence. Market tops are characterized by Analytic 3, that is, as is clear after the event, the market could not support higher prices. The question is, is Analytic 3 an indicator itself of a steep fall I think it has to be taken into account with general market information, like for example contrarian indicators such as reports that prices will go ever higher. The nature of the market can perhaps give a bias towards falls e g the structural instability still in the market. But one might say the purity of its structure indicates perhaps yes So we are then slightly more confident in going with it for a while and then testing with Analytic 1.One tends to see consolidation after a major fall but it may be these indicate the re-emergence of growth processes. In essence one is recognizing a market top and testing for a market bottom This directionality bias comes from the apparent observation that there is an asymmetry in currency pairs, perhaps a consequence of long term growth processes in the Dow and their effect on USD. But can one test a market top with Analytic 1 Yes, the idea is that it is correct to do this, but if one sees a pure Analytic 3 and RSI divergence and the market conditions confirm this, then one might be advised to watch for a significant fall, i e be wary about going long. The structure of growth and money flow is to an extent captured by Analytic 1 and 3, but one might say that the optimization process is to an extent captured by Analytic 2 That is the fine grained process of traders deciding value and riding with the internal valuation processes. Could one say that Analytic 2 works in some sense between Analytic 1 and Analytic 2 Yes in the sense when these events are not happening, but in terms of the occurrence of these events, perhaps it may occur during the consolidation process It may be the optimization process enables growth to happen again. Consolidation is wave riding It is also highly structured, one can sometimes measure the length of the space between reducing waves in an indicative way, this suggests an optimizing process at work. This works more purely in between markets when the other processes are at bay and as I suggest in a particularly indicative way in the immediate time before a scheduled major news event. I have noted in my blog posts that trends seem to differ in terms of whether they are growth oriented or money flow oriented Money flow surges are usually indicated at the base of a consolidation process, e g at the time before a major market open But it may be that they are part of a possible growth process trend when the market opens. That is the idea that money flow is part of the activation of growth this blog has discussed This is using events, pre-market to market, as a way of assuming the induction of growth processe s, instead of testing for them. With these kind of layering of causality, which a lot of day trading really is, for practical reasons of what is possible to do at a high speed real time market, one needs tight trade management, i e clear exit routes What I mean is, play it safe. Analytics 8-12 Process Trading. To establish causality in a system, especially if one wants to interact with it in real time, one needs to establish a chain of events The problem for many traders, is that the market s chain of events is to eat up your money One wants to get in on a movement which will have a directionality you can trade. The directionality of the market is normally aimed at making you lose, that is what market order flow is all about This is especially apparent at the 1 minute level, those deceptive waves when you try and ride them are actually there to soak up your cash They are not waves, they are rip tides Thus only ride them if you are really experienced. However the contention of this blog is t hat there are processes perhaps from the equity market which essentially override the dynamics of Forex More than this, Forex stripped of its market making dynamics is an essential part of this process, over the long term. It is a contention of this blog that these growth processes are actually more tradable in Forex day trading than in equity day trading The fine grained computations inherent in long term value optimizations in equities seem to happen in Forex. Analytic 8 Detection of Process.- for USD JPY given present relative interest rates. Is there sign of long term growth processes in Forex.- Is there a sign of growth optimization initializing - Long term RSI coming up from an extreme after staying there for a while - Is there contrarian evidence from patterns on 15min this assumes at this level order flow deception prevails - Is there fundamental evidence of computational growth in the US economy - bias towards long USD - Enter long during consolidation. Analytic 9 Indicator Logic. Based on the ideas above for USD JPY. One could say that structure indicators or visual inspection tell you is. One could say that RSI is a real time indicator, but because the information content decays between extremes, says can. Once could say that equity growth indicators give possible outcomes maybe will. Once could say that ATR used in major currency pairs says not that is volatility has occurred and is now disappearing, as tends to happen. That is, ATR not - structure flat - equity order flat - market rescaling - adirectional, that is it is unconstrained and can go any direction. except some probability that if ATR not - equity order flat - sensitivity to structure - RSI in between - short. except some probability that if volatility is falling - equity growth will prevail. What this means for Forex is interesting as it may be the source of the asymmetry, that is the directionality traders place on long short is a market which is supposed to be neutral to this Or it may be a consequence of the fact that USD is biased towards growth processes. That is, the pair will tend to evidence an asymmetry and fall from technical barriers or rise with growth The assumption here is that structure indicates a technical level implicit from Forex market process. A further assumption is that volatility and growth are not particularly correlated, i e that growth is a stable process And that growth takes place around implicit Forex technical structures. But volatility may be strongly correlated with bounces This suggests reasons for problems with trading chaos based signals in Forex, bounces are not necessarily connected with deterministic processes. But more than this it suggests why it is so hard to predict moves in Forex, growth does not necessarily come from directional processes a bounce most certainly is. An implicit assumption is that there are certain approaches to Forex trading based on the way the market behaves this blog has explored, that is that at any given point the number of ways a valuation can move is inherently unpredictable. So one can assume the trade will go against you and take positions regardless of this, and if it goes against you, rely on your analysis being correct over time or a retracement, that is a coarse grained market regularity. One can trade based on the way growth seems to occur, but it may be the case that such approaches may not translate completely into Forex. Or one can build a trade taking account of the number of ways it can change, as much as one can, that is to optimize on directional non-predictability based on fine grained regularities. Or one can try and see what it is that produces these regularities as well as the above. When not to Trade. Anytime that big money is making moves for reasons other than for finding market directionality For example, Friday afternoon tends to evidence this random volatility Another time for this is at big technical levels, for example EUR USD at 1 5.These levels are a no mans land, where huge positi ons and exotic instruments make the market totally different in terms of its functionality, these positions may have been taken significantly in the past, without regard to the way the market is at the time they are hit. It becomes a market made for relative large ranges, at relatively high speed not designed to be traded This is the kind of activity one sees in more normal times after a day trading trend ends, on a lesser scale. The point about this, is not to avoid Friday afternoon, but to note that those kinds of patterns show up at other times and can be a signal not to place a trade, that is the market has become devoid of functionalized structure, which will invalidate signals based on past market data. They may cause retracements, which may then turn dramatically in favor of the analysis That is another issue in Forex, being right at a market turn, but being wiped out by either volatility or a retracement. That is a feature of Forex which causes problems for a machine, a rule based system and even the human trader, this keys into the discussion about adrenaline in my webpage Forex However, if one can avoid making the trade during this period this would be helpful. This sounds like market memory does it not But the idea is that to grow, the market needs to re-write itself, that is, the no mans land may be part of this process That is, the process to revalue signaled by a growth indicator, is already there. One thing I might add is that it is perhaps important not to project price moves That is, it is a foundation of financial analysis in reference to share prices to do this and it it easy to do this on a Forex chart. However, the problem with Forex is that it is not a market where there is extended agreement to move prices, when and if this is possible Rather the market is highly unstable with reference to directionality If it seems clear that prices should continue in a given direction, up or down, it can be useful to imagine that they will flatten. Tip I tend to regard equal and opposite candles as signs not to trade, as they indicate a level of disorder in the market. Analytic 10 Catching the Falling Knife. This is a time one is not supposed to trade, it is an extremely high risk approach to such a market The reason it interests me is because that was the crisis and I made Forex trades within it However as my blog has noted, for various reasons, the market continues to evidence such environments. It is said of Forex that one can trade with equal facility long or short, and that is an advantage of it This is true, there are no trading asymmetries between long or short, but there do seem to be market asymmetries between long or short. That is, currencies fall faster than they rise, a technical phenomenon noted across markets More particularly, when they start falling, they fall quicker. Whether this is really the case is debatable, but what interests me is the way a falling equity market affects EUR USD What I noted at the time was act ually long short symmetry in some measure and asymmetry in other. Asymmetry in time to fall and symmetry in the patterns generated That is, compressed Elliott wave patterns, compressed in time It did seem that these patterns were more precise though. What I noted was that a surge in equity falls, was followed by changes in valuations of EUR downwards relative to USD, but in a way which suggested that a computational event was taking place. That is the Forex market was affected by these changes but in a way which seemed geared for the Forex market, when it happened. The problem with trading a market like this, is the time compression Note how hard it is to trade a slower moving Elliott Wave upwards It is so easy to get in on it late and be in a terrible trading position Thus at high speed these issues are presumably enhanced. The problem is that once the market has processed these inputs, it seems to move quickly back into a retracement upwards That is the transition to a reverse position is quicker. Tip An issue with a falling market is that once the prices have cascaded i e there has been for example a sharp RSI divergence after a price was sharply rejected with a number of tests there is no value in the system This means the market is searching for something it cannot do, it cannot optimize no value input But one can look for the re-establishment of value ranges, with the bounce. The above is an analysis in support of not trying to catch a falling knife. Analytic 11 Volatility. Define volatility on Forex as the ebb and flow of growth if no news, but taking into account that news itself may be a way to rescale growth processes That is, news will tend to reflect growth in the economy One can assume the economy itself has a rescaling effect on Forex. Growth is not inherently directional It just may be in certain circumstances That is, growth is a deep regularity which may have have some kind of continuity That continuity may make for tradable regularities. It may be the case that Forex is more tradable on a day trading scale than equities on growth, as the elements are so coarse grained in Forex But equities are almost certainly more tradable on growth over long term. This is a possible pointer towards the way the immediate reaction to a news event can be the way the market later goes How later though is the indeterminacy that makes for trading. That is decreasing volatility can be seen as an enabling condition for new growth and increasing volatility may be a sign of the effects of growth. This may be an argument for staying out of volatile periods in the market This is because we should not expect that the effect of growth is to create a value differential. Yet there seems to be a push element in Forex, that is it will respond in structured ways to external pushes, which we might include as growth as well, but these become dissipated That is, growth or any other push creates instability, while it creates a possible differential. Tip The volatility indicator I was looking at was ATR. Analytic 12 Forex Proofs. This is a closer look at the intermixing process of growth with money flow The issue is to delineate when support is support or when it is part of this process I suggest that behavior at a key number level indicates whether this is the case or not Not as a probability, Forex seems biased strongly against probabilistic trading, but as a series of forensic examinations to determine an outcome. That is the proposition that this process occurs is there to be proved or disproved The problem is that such proofs become probabilistic, but that is because it is known that there probably cannot be sufficient information to prove or disprove this proposition. This of course is a familiar problem, it is the issue Einstein eluded to about probabilistic statements about the nature of the universe Einstein thus felt there was a description that could be expressed as proofs, which is what those who, as some describe, follow t he school of Plato, believe. The basic belief of this site is that yes, the market is thus In my opinion methods in Forex are not probabilistic though, they are proof statements that are applied to a system they are not properly or even derived from in general they are derived from the equity markets. From this we can suggest that support and resistance are inherently problematic, they are clear examples of proof statements that have do not have implied derivation at all What I suggest is that they may be price levels at which growth can be enabled. That is it is not simply that they are areas which provide stop points over a time and thus can enable growth, rather that they reflect the growth enabling process itself That is one moves away from ad hoc proof statements and tries to derive statements to prove. Is is the case that, this support level is a growth enabling process, or something else For that we test with the Analytics above If it is the case, this is not a support level. Tip It may remain as a memory, in the way this blog has discussed the Forex market may contain very long precise sustained memory processes, but what happens when it returns to that level depends on what process is occurring at that time. What makes it return, it may be those limits on search engineered by order flow As noted in my Market Analysis Blog some pairs very precisely follow such structure over years, some do not This suggests the market contains and makes the optimization process within a structure provided by the pair. Traders imposing rules on a structure that rejects them, making it an apparently probabilistic process, where these rules then get assigned probabilistic values This itself may lead to information decay and this may be the source of the growth process. This blog has conjectured various sources of this, including the equity market from companies , but the discrete nature of this process in Forex suggests it may be an interactive process of information decay with this. That is traders do indeed cause and end trends, but not where their intention is implicitly to do so The placement is partly deterministic on structure caused by order flow. Analytics 13-15 The Structure of the Market. Analytic 13 News Trading. The attraction of this is speed, for the initial reaction after or at 2 15 Either you make a profit quickly, or you do not I do not find it that impossibly volatile, but it is dangerous But it does tend to conform to certain repeating patterns No matter what, one needs to do a fundamental analysis before, that is a sense more particularly of what it is that the market will react to. A difference between news trading and other trading is that the market is highly sensitive to inputs, more so than usual What does that mean, it means if you can find that sensitivity, one can maybe get an edge The first thing to look for is overall directional sensitivity. Generally one needs to do fundamental research to discover in for example non farm payrolls wh at is your expected figure I find that if one has a figure in sharp contrast to the expected figure, than it is not a bad idea to trade on the smooth USD JPY reaction One needs to take a position before 2 15.Why would one have a figure in sharp contrast to expected Well, for example careful analysis of available job figures may indicate that within this negative data are important positive signs that may surprise the market One may have noted signs of economic recovery. I might note that like market behavior, economic activity tends to grow at the apparently bleak times Job activity in the US can be highly sensitive to such activity. Tip When you have established overall sensitivity, or lack of it, one needs to factor in patterns which seem almost hard wired into EUR USD news trading That is, a pattern sensitivity If EUR USD boosts up, it will tend to plateau Plateaus tend to be followed by spurts in the initial direction, which can massively collapse It tends to be best to get out at the plateau, because one can. Put it this way, it is unlikely that the rise one wants will happen there and then, but it is fun to trade The Forex market does not like linearity in value differentials It tend to look for valuation ranges, even in news events Thus before it finds your direction, it will go against it But once it finds that directionality, one is in the usual trading situation. Find directional sensitivity --- find pattern sensitivity ---- solve constraints on this ---- exit when constraints cause destruction. Analytic 14 The Structure of the Auction House. What might growth mean in Forex In equities it tends to mean compan ies growing, through the activities of those involved In Forex it may be something similar The company for Forex is the instrument which gets built and torn apart on a daily basis Let s take the start point as the moment when the instrument resurrects itself. As an instrument it does matter whether it is desirable, to be bid, or not, to be sold But it matters only for those auctioning it This is based on the apparent asymmetry between long and short movements in pairs, especially pairs which have structured charting patterns over the long term. From the perspective on anybody who has not yet taken a position, who is not part of the auction process, long and short is symmetrical The structure for the asymmetry is that one does very much care, less if one is a robot, depending on how profit is set as a goal in these programs thus programs should make for a more symmetrical and probably more ranging market One is assuming that traders prefer long to short in instruments. The auction house fo rms and the bidding resumes This is a self supporting structure, which gives us the candles moving upwards It is the difference between buying when the auction house has shut down, for example after markets close Here a purchase is one with the programs, and the patterns that the programs create are clear, and indeed are always there.- A pair is an instrument in and of itself and overcomes its relation with other currencies and the economy itself, for while -- because it is an instrument which is in the auction house. The formation of the auction house though is not necessarily a given in main trading hours, it is just it can form To test for it one uses the tests above, more generally.1 is the auction house self supporting - yes - how strong is the structure.--- look for its elements of support - activity -- ATR - structure itself -- Ehler Fisher - layers of supporting structure the programs coherent with the auction house - MACD ordering.2 collapse of auction house - the market become s a conduit and exist with the program structure which adapts to this and changes. Tests for the conduit - MACD cross. Analytic 15 Forex Mirrors. What is a further elaboration of a Forex mirror mentioned in the Market Analysis Blog These are structures that get mirrored Therefore there is potentially deep predictability in their appearance This is not like pattern analysis where one needs to wait to an extent for their appearance that they have already taken a big bite, perhaps too big a bite out of your profits. These are patterns one can enter as soon as one sees structural evidence for their formation That is deep predictability I suspect their formation is due to coarse grained inputs from the wider economy, therefore they are useful only on longer time frames, e g H4.Their sturdiness is due to the overriding effect of such inputs on Forex valuations - these are the fundamentals valuing currency pairs, but on day trading framework their appearance is obscured by many more inputs releva nt to short term trading frames What might their role be in market turns, they may be neutral to such events. Analytic 16 Order versus Disorder. This concerns the stability of trends Given that a growth process gives a stability to what is always a future projection, to what extent can this be relied upon When one examines a trend, it seems unstable But one may be looking for behavior that is from an entirely different process, but is just made to seem the same by the way charting represents price movements. What a beginning of a trend is, is linked to the concept of pip pressure and the capacity of prices to move in an ordered way The ordering may be from a process of ordering That is the stability comes from the fact the process itself not random in its structuring over time That results in trends which continue until stopped. Now it might be suggested these trends will result in a steep reversal afterwards, as the order dissipates, but this dissipation of order results in an orderly pro cess of price deflation But what happens next is the pricing behavior one might have been looking for in the trend, that is volatility, pricing disorder. Analytic 17 Applications. What does the commentary on this site say about structures for tackling markets Very provisionally and subject to revision it suggest that unless the equity market is enjoying company growth or future valuations stabilized by company and economic growth, the equity market will be like the Forex market That is going long and short will probably have an asymmetry such that there is randomness in the facility with which you can go long or short. It indicates that short selling stocks may result in sharp losses over medium term time frames as it does in effect in Forex It indicates that a more optimized structure is analytical methods applied to choosing sets of companies to go long with allied with a strategy of dipping into the Forex market to enhance value, with an assumption of loss, but with a reference to each market in these choices. Analytic 18 To Bounce or not to Bounce. That is the question, indeed What I suggest is looking at a bounce as a whole new discrete order set, establishing a local structure, but still within a global structure That is one looks from the beginning on 1 min for the level of stability it may evidence for the entirety of its existence. We can do this by the stability by eye of the candles this comes from pip pressure And one can combine signals with this which show what we could describe as the global structural stability of the market That is rejection in the waves, or more exactly the set of rejections. This state ends when a new global order is established, evidenced by an input of some kind, particularly those from the global structure. That is one is looking not directly for directionality but a future level of stability for the pair. However a lemma to this can be seen as the formation of the auction house despite this, an internal development which builds the str ucture This could be characterized as a fine grained volatility building to smoother structure over a higher time frame. That is we see time frames as expressing the creation of structure, rather than a reference of pointers One could even suggest that these moves are useful for the development of smooth structure building This is about internal market trend stability, that is structure building is part of Forex. Tip If there is a downtrend, and the pair has gone below 25, it is likely going to attack the 00 , no matter how much it may structurally look like a bounce, and vice versa for a long. Analytic 19 Structural Reference. One issue I have always encountered is what to do about referencing present day trading charting data to past data There are many views on this, expressed in methods such as trend lines However what I really want in a broad overview, which is why I look at 1 month. But this assumes that there is structural coherence of some kind over time Considering the concept of phases used in the Market Analysis Blog one might look at a reference methodology such as this phase phase phase phase So the assumption is that there is recursion in the reference of the day trading frame to the past data. That is we assume no order in the day trading frame except that there is recursion in the reference to past data A complicating factor is that the recursion itself may be random in its ordering However since we are assuming that there is structural information over time, at least we can assume that the existence of such information is not itself random, but it may be. It may be as well that the order in such structure is a creation of the reference, that is the recursion of phases However let it not be said that Forex is entirely straightforward. Analytic 20 NY Equity Close. This is one that I have come back to over the years It differs from the examination of UK Germany close I would put it like this Most tendency to affect structure order, in order UK, Germany, US close This makes the NY close most difficult to trade, and very treacherous In fact the trend and structure wrapped in this trend can continue as if it has not happened. However I may suggest that it tightens the order, from equity, which I would characterize as having a loosening effect on Forex structure That is, it disengages the connectivity, that the Forex market seeks to re-engage This comes back to the idea of Forex as highly ordered in its native core. Analytic 21 News Trading Logic. The longer one stays in the market the greater the risk News trading is regarded as highly risky and I would not argue with that But one advantage it has is that it happens quickly The best moments to trade are the minute before the announcement This will be based on these conditions 1 An analysis has been performed which has established directionality in the market or or lack of it 2 Proof of this is what happens just as the pair starts to move 3 If your hypothesis is being proved, go with it else do not The assumption here is that compression of time and from vast sums of money makes the market quite logical at this time. Analytic 22 Machine Logic. Shorting needs signals, such as a rise which levels off The reason this is of interest to me is because of the expression of this kind of signal in news trading This is a classic signal just at the release of a news event This is a high speed crystal clear signal Ther e seems to be a tendency in Forex for clarity to be a function of speed and therefore of risk. However because of the lack of clarity in slower signals, the risk is there as well, but as a function of the changes which can happen over time, not related to the signal itself This gives support for machine trading, because those programs will tend to be highly responsive to whatever logic in the market is following that structure which is given by the signal Market logic - machine programs - responsiveness to this - market logic. Does this scale up Perhaps is may cause stability over longer time frames Because as one gets to longer term time frames, there is may be a reduction of the effect of random inputs, but stabilized market logic may still be present, assuming it is not a function of time However a belief of this blog is that it is not necessarily in a way which is detrimental to directional stability. The reason for this belief is one may ask whether time has any kind of decay effect in markets Its effect may rather be one of decay reversal Indeed the way the market taken as a whole in the Dow restructures itself remarkably over time, may support this Essentially over time market logic can re-assert itself Market logic seems to be about the presentation of growth, for risk taking. Analytic 23 Directional Instability. In a market devoid of clear input, and structured symmetrical order to cohere with, can we expect directionality Yes, perhaps we can, in terms of computations that may find that directionality These need not be directional, but they may evidence a directionality in terms of exploring levels and finding new ones Rises tend to happen from basing patterns. However the stability of that layered rise that is a set of layer exploration which randomly may have a directionality, hence retracements may depend on coarse grained inputs For example an interest rate differential may provide a tendency to find a given direction, independent of instability in layering i tself That is, there is no decay from move to move Decay is important because it may be visible to traders and computer programs. So is structure different long from short It may be that symmetry induced coherence rises fall easily here the directionality is set by a semi-stable inputs such as what the equity market does to EUR USD There may be a clustering of layering towards the standard way the pair is traded, that destructures Thus directional stability may be a function of the actual direction that can be attained. Analytic 24 Directional Stability. The Dow seems to evidence what to the Forex market would be long term directional stability Here we can see layered rises that are continually reinforced by company growth Now, we see a simulation effect which reinforced the stability of the units, but does not reinforce the connectivity So we see company growth as doing both. So why did EUR USD evidence long term growth Perhaps because of continuous reinforcement from simulated and compan y growth from the Dow, on its native structure, which seems stable and non-volatile, and adirectional, perhaps like the units which can be grown We note now that Dow has grown from its low, but EUR USD has not So something is different and what it is, seems insufficient to enable EUR USD growth for now 7 12.Analytic 25 Market Turns. We noted structure breaking during the crisis, and we note possible growth processes Can we regard a retracement in some cases as a time for symmetry to reform and for growth processes in a retracement to enable symmetrical connections. Sustained asymmetrical moves may distort the symmetry necessary to value via retracements , with a resulting precise revaluation to enable valuation in the future We can note free units of valuation after structure breaking apparent choppiness and could we note a decrease in such in the run up to a market turn. Analytic 26 Equal and Opposite. Continuing the Indicator Logic from Analytic 9 above we might say equal and opposite ca ndles are no with a delayed temporal component to maybe to yes depending on the capacity of the market to process such a decision That sees this kind of resultant volatility as not indecision, but as decision requiring temporal processing. One might add weight to the yes if we note a lack of resultant volatility, that is we see a precise signal, with a temporal element The issue becomes what yes means in the context of the pair, that is a contextual and ultimately trading decision, but one could note this kind of temporal logic separates Forex from gamblingments from the Sustained Awareness Approach. Analytic 27 The Emergence of Tradable Moments. This is a further elaboration on RSI structure breaking events One can wait around for a potentially tradable event, or one can have something wait around for you But the essence is not knowing when News events can be a when, but what happens may be so volatile as not to be tradable Do tradable events though emerge from something or do they simpl y emerge. If they simply emerge, the one waits around If they emerge from something, then one tries to detect that something and assign a likelihood of it having emergent behavior That can be a factor of external inputs, but there seems to be a certain predictability from computer programs Many events partly emerge and then get submerged. However that submerging may have a certain reaction from the markets such that tradable events occur, if not what might be expected This brings one back to something which can react to this event Submerging - structure breaking - RSI divergence The crisis was filled by such events The problem with this, is that fast reactions of a different directionality can happen as well That is growth may speed up, even if in a destabilized volatile manner. Analytic 28 Free Pairs. As a tradable moment submerges, there is a practical likelihood of it emerging stronger than ever These are those trades which pip down not at a global low, local or otherwise, then pip up h ard However to what extent are those global or local patterns connections. If one sees the memory of the pair in structure, that is reactive to the potential of the market at a given time to cohere with that memory, one sees the pip down as a memory reaction One notes precise long term memory in some pairs So one might assume that such structure is not changed by this, if it exists. So it may not be an issue of global or local connectivity That is, the pair is in a real sense free in this market, but susceptible to order imposed on it from time to time. Analytic 29 At the Base. The concerns a pattern in EUR USD where it has risen smoothly and sharply, hits resistance then falls after a time The question is, what is happening when it hits the point that we can define as the effective end of the rise, on the way back That question is about whether this is reasonably deterministic on downward motion or a fertile area for growth, once the bounces have been washed out. A growth event we can view as determinism on reversal One might suggest from experience that there is an indeterminism on the determinism at such points But is there an underlying order That is perhaps the core question of Forex, is there at any point, or over a set of points, or over random points, directionality I suggested in the blog it is an optimization, but optimizing to what, perhaps to randomness Why, because this is the best valuation sequencing for Forex, as it is a set of highly unrelated optimizations at a given time and over time. We noted in what we termed quantum foam in the analytics above the random appearance of directionality, perhaps we can say that is the underlying order But can we say that Forex valuations reference that order, in general, that is, it is that indeterminism Perhaps as certain points in a valuation sequence This may be temporally independent, that is such sequences exist over time, that is the long memory we have noted. We can see the connectivity as presenting the possibili ty of order, released at key points But what gets accepted, is a product of the core order of Forex That itself may be dependent on actual Forex events happening at the time of the key area So maybe we can rather expect nothingness, quantum foam at these times What happens next is not deterministic at all, except that it happens. Analytic 30 Destabilized Trends. This concerns trends that will not start even in compressed situations, such as news events We can characterize this as a lack of directionality immediately after news events However we can characterize such situations as money flow events A money flow market seems to evidence such instability It is a kind of flow around reference points, with a tendency not to find a temporally stabilized value differential. That characterizes a bull market in equities, but not a bear market, and especially not it seems at the finer grain of companies In this case we can judge companies in certain ways, but can we judge a currency in such terms W ell, that is interesting as it suggests the survivability of a currency may be factored on other than a political will, in certain circumstances That is, the currency has a certain stability. One noted the equity like behavior of EUR USD in the run up to the crisis, and its behavior since One notices as well that EUR itself has survived so far, as indeed has the equity market However the valuation process seems to be like the equity market, a ranging one, but without the directionality of the equity market, but with its stabilization either parallel or convergent at times But we may need something to increase the frequency of stabilized directionality. Analytic 31 Variation in Pairs. We have noted different behavior over the long term in pairs and are presently exploring in the Market Analysis Blog the appearance of this at shorter terms The question here, which takes a broader view, is the tendency for specific behavior at shorter terms. One might say that the effect of the equity market may not be one that reinforces at shorter terms, except to introduce alien inputs that may over time create a simulated behavior that can collapse that is, short term effectively reinforces long term But would not any input that is part of the process of currency exchange and trader activity be a native input We are supposing some kind of inherent structure for Forex. We have noted gold for example has Forex like behavior and also behavior that is more specific to it and silver That is functionally Forex is different, in term of it valuations However rather than seeing behavior as due to function, which may change, we see rather a core function, which other functions modulate. That is, there is a structure to it that function changes in time dependent ways to produce different behavior The structure is malleable to an extent but its limits may be the fact Forex is foreign exchange and gold is a precious metal However one might ask if that Forex core behavior is ranging, with value refere nces over time and a tendency to degrade ranges and value references, without external structuring. One might ask as well what would such a core behavior for equities be It might be something like that without future valuations of strong reinforcement of earnings, except for the capacity of those involved to remake and redirect and reinforce that which produces value and is being valued. Analytic 32 Volatility and Directionality. If we assume a directionality given by a certain structural formation in a pair, we can see volatility as the tendency of a pair to find non-directional ways to value, to the extent that we can describe a pair as having a valuation I noted above the sense of a time dependent valuation, which can be referenced over long periods of time, without any sense of external inputs being the same how could this be, it is like refinding mostly unknown initial conditions. We see this as a structure that exists independent of the structure by which a pair expresses a valuation on the flow of money However it may have those conditions in it and returns to those valuation states by virtue of an optimization on those conditions that is the pair fits to a certain state, independent of time, by virtue of valuation. We might contrast this with equity valuations, which in general do not move like this, but one could see how they might, where there is a constancy on the activity which generates cash through a balance sheet Here we might expect then volatility with the tendency towards growth, to move out of this state Thus we might see this as a recognized behavior of Forex pairs, but a specific behavior of certain kinds of companies this was discussed in some of the blog posts. Analytic 33 Market Time. One might note that time in markets in a function of the extent to which they are seen as tradable However one might note that time in markets is a function of the extent to which they can move However one may note that time in markets is a function of long term change s. To wait for a market move is to wait in essence for nothing When the turn comes it may be as if from nothing. However is there a time to such moves such that one can say it came on such and such a market time Can one nest the time functions like observation changes move Perhaps more likely move changes observation. That is the problem, that appearance from nothing that one back backwards engineer in terms of explanation and market time It comes down to that branching of Forex, the many possibilities, that freedom of movement of this market. But even though equities may be more constrained it may have a similar nature, as time functions independent of constraints on it Thus markets remain free, and not subject to control of their primary function, to value over time It is just in Forex the lack of constraint produces more movement away from tradable directionality, unless that valuation is itself constrained over time. Analytic 34 Valuations and Flow. Each valuation could be seen as being soaked in future valuations How do these differ from present valuations Present valuations are partly quantitative, except that there is perhaps a lack of precision normally given to quantitative values, given that what they reference is qualitative But future valuations are highly qualitative, in that they effectively reference is a sense of up or down or ranging. Thus we cannot perhaps view the structure of such valuations as being geometrically formal So we may view them as more like a flow, which becomes saturated Why, well in the case of companies, there is a structure within which valuations can cohere But this may require growing functionally sound companies which leaves open the possibility of flash formalism So the determinism perhaps exists in the capacity of the market to value. In the case of Forex, which itself references money flow, we see a commentary on the process itself, that is, the presence of structure to valuations across markets But we also see the capacity of the market to value on future valuations, which just means a certain activity in the market when it opens However these capacities are as well a function of structuring inputs into the valuations stream. Analytic 35 Structural Causality in Markets. One may have to assume that causality in markets changes However does such malleability of causality reference itself to time frames Is causality less stable at shorter time frames or longer time frames One might say that in Forex, less stable at longer time frames However it may be that structure is more stable at longer time frames If one assumes that structure is that which causes in Forex, then one looks for where it seems such stability may exist. However we may not necessarily assume this in equities, as we may assume that a there is causality from Forex and b there is a hard determinism in equities, stemming perhaps from creative directed structured activity by organized people over time, highly directed by money That is the nature of the ma rket hard wires a directionality, as it demands, and investors demands that flow from input to company, to expanded output, flowing through that creative activity, over time. However that is as well what Forex flows through and directs itself to Thus the causality of structure is a consequence of the structure of economic activity, expressed through ordered sets of companies, over time Ordered sets because they tend to be ordered this way by investors, but may naturally order themselves thus, for purposes of efficiency caused by money direction Changes in causality may stem from the flow itself. Analytic 36 Mirroring. These is a quality I talk about in the experimental analysis, and following on from Analytic 15 What do I mean by this I mean that I am looking for structure as tightly conformed with each other, but at the same time highly not conformed That is the mirror, an internal lack of compatibility from similarity. That is something one could see as the fundamental motive of the Forex market, in particular, that antagonism From such mirrors, directionality may emerge, bearing in mind that directionality is not necessarily the way Forex pairs find relative value stability, that becomes unstable. But directionality may be a kind of dual conforming, that becomes unstable. Can we see those cascading falls as more dynamic mirrors of structured rises Perhaps, since over time that structural similarity may not hold similarity dissimilarity and similarity similarity - dissimilarity, but still a mirror as the market is still the market. That is, since we are looking at mirrors generally over long time frames e g monthly why are we seeing structural similarity. Well, that assumes that we are seeing this, as the discussion at the beginning of this analytic may suggest that we are not seeing this, necessarily, it is more like a pointer to something else. Analytic 37 Mirroring Plus. This analytic concerns the effect of long term processes on the above analytic Let s assume in Forex t hese exist but they have a structure which exists only over time, that is they are not tied to what we might term growth. Here we see growth as structure formation, that is, each change is tied closely to the preceding state However in Forex growth we see each change as lightly tied to the previous state This results in malleable structure, that is one might expect mirrors to be more prevalent in Forex. Whether this is the case I cannot say, but I will note that precision of reference in Forex Let us say it is an interesting way for me to look at other markets, which I do anyway. Analytic 38 Long Effects. This concerns the inputs of factors such as commodity prices into the Forex market and thence into the wider economy So we see Forex long term structures as a kind of support in some sense for other valuations, that is extension through time. We could even see such valuations as bouncing on Forex structure, finding extension this way We could note that such activity reinforces Forex struct ure over time, or perhaps more properly helps create it over time in the malleable way suggested above. This could create unusual temporal valuations, extended in time, introduced to and modulated by market valuation functionality, until decayed, or subjected to collapse functionality. Analytic 1 3 13 - 12 23am Reflection Gauges. If we can delineate equity gauges, for states of the market, can we delineate Forex gauges What do we mean by an equity gauge We mean a set which act as a function, that is the set, by virtue of that which makes it thus over time, acts as a reflected function of the market to the extent such functionality can exist. It is like a view from a perspective the market does not have, thus issues of information - function arbitrage do not occur, to an extent That extent may be temporal, not informational Can something like this exist in Forex. The intensity of arbitrage here may collapse any such reflection, but it may exist in long term reflections, but the issue is maki ng them informational at short term frames, which may necessarily obviate any functionality, in keeping with the equity gauge. The idea here is that Forex does not have a structure which can find this kind of order, there is no room for sets, yet there may be in the interaction of pairs with pairs, but this may not have sufficient order in it. However there does exist that compression we talked of at news events, and here reflection may be partly functional, but given to sharp oscillations, as this compression also enhances this functionality. Analytic 1 16 13 4 15pm Bouncing and not so Floating References. Let us say we see a Forex pair as a ball bouncing But more exactly as a ball which splices into component parts, as a random response to an input As the pair moves out of its bounce zone, the separation between parts removes order from its inbuilt oscillations. Any further inputs from the market may well have an effect, but they will not reference the established order, established in th e temporal frame within which the initial input activated the pair. This order is itself the parts of the ball, because the order itself references the global and temporally preceding local order So the oscillations become a reintegration of the ball with that order. Thus the structure of pricing can reflect references That is the ball over time is a reflection of its sets of references, thus it has memory, to the extent that it can, as it were, float. Can we envisage a way that is does not float, perhaps from the effects of a strong rising bull market One sees this on a day trading time frame, during NY market hours, but how does this accumulate over time. It may not, as it may be sufficiently different from the order of the Forex market that it does not This is to me a most interesting question, as it brings up that question of the tradability of Forex during equity market hours. That is, what is it one is trying to do with a pair at this time, given what the market is doing to it. But thi s observation may illuminate the question of a slump in Forex valuations, like the one in USD JPY we have been investigating or in the structure of EUR USD valuations That is our ball will not float, perhaps because of changes in the equity market So what gets it to float again. Analytic 2 22 13 4 59pm Temporal Indeterminacy. If we see analysis as consisting of strands of possibility, what can we say about a trading decision One can for example trade on a rule of some kind, with the assumption that this rule is such that it will indicate which strand is likely at a given time But at a given time one could note point like possibilities What does this do to analysis It means that, which strand is temporally likely is important Is that a contextual state That is, the market will attract a strand and make it point like. Or can we say each strand has a time line such that at some point it becomes point like, a hard determinism Let us consider strands of strands What might make this attract, th at is, attraction and determinism, to attract Also what might make it repel One might look for a determinism behind all of this, for example regularities across markets. Can we regard markets themselves as engaged in attraction and repulsion For example we see the functioning of the Forex market during the crisis as a consequence of an attraction with the equity market What can we consider such attraction to do to markets. We have noted in analysis certain structures in post crisis Forex market Can we note a freeing of Forex from this That is effectively a repulsion Why, perhaps for temporal reasons that is a determinism by which markets take on point like structure But we might expect some pairs to do this at different times from others If one trades on rules one would might need to expect this tendency to be encoded in the rule, or added. Analytic 4 30 13 3 00pm Perceived Movement. Let us say a pair is slowly entering into a perceived position, taking out what may be in its way different from a strong move crashing down also taking out what may be in its way Is that situation one which may make for an increased possibility to bounce in addition to an increased perception of a possibility of a bounce. Firstly let us consider that as a system we may say it is less likely that a pair will be gently easing into a position Thus we may say that there is such a derived possibility that it may bounce this may be related to the perception of it as well. But can we consider that it may nudge downwards We might note that the likelihood of a bounce increases the further is nudges down, though this reduces the perceptual issue, as this is itself somewhat contrarian We might consider that there is still inherent the possibility of a bounce from the way it moves But how would we consider these possibilities to interact. Is this interaction causal on the structure of the move Or does the move emerge from essentially random order, that is from all those many divergent and convergent inpu ts to value the pair as a given time, wrapped in the weight of that which was past and what is to come noting an expression in reference of these being the same thing. This creates a semblance of causality, such that in fact many different other configurations could emerge But to all this we might add yet it may Because that interaction may itself create a semblance of acausality, at times. Analytic 6 12 13 6 04pm Language Effects. Let us consider total surprise in the market, in these cases language maps tightly onto valuation At which point can we consider that it does not One can consider what is happening when the language event happens It is like a statement counter to an interest rate decision, only in terms of expected directionality. News events seems to reveal hard levels in valuations, where pauses occur and sometimes sharp reactions in reverse, after the initial reaction One might expect statements injected here to have some effect, but they may not at all, because one might con sider that here the market is locked into consequential functionality, it cannot mirror a statement. But in the very initial moments perhaps they will, as the market is highly open to possibility here, it is in some sense an entirely free market Movements prior to release may point to that freedom and underlying directionality in the market, if we see a free market as one bound only to its own determination. Analytic 8 8 13 4 35pm Value Changes. In markets there is something that creates a commonality among different apparent structure, as represented in charting That is value It seems to me that in this representation, that different instruments may respond differently to commonalities across markets That is long term and very short term patterns and responses one sees again. This may be due to fundamentals, that is explicit conditions in the country a currency is located, for example There may be more generic reasons for this differing response But because there is a general response eff ect, it seems appropriate to examine pairs for such a loose taxonomy. But one also notes, that there is a general response across markets, for example responses one can see across pairs in terms of their capacity to alter valuations This may make for differing response on short terms Whether this reflects on some capacity to value, is another matter. Analytic 9 19 13 7 52pm Oscillations and Support Resistance. If we consider that a pair is on a very local time frame, moving towards what we can regard as support or resistance, that is it is sensitive to short term valuation references, we can perhaps say that if it is oscillating with some strength, then the pair may be regarded as being more likely to bounce at the support resistance. But the question remains will it bounce sufficiently to overcome its cost However why would we not regard oscillation strength as being indicative of a capacity to overcome the support resistance Like generating force to move something against resistance, in nature We can regard the pressure being put on the pair from programs and traders to move in that direction as not necessarily consistent with oscillations. So we can see any chance of release from that pressure as giving vent to the oscillation Thus we can regard the stop condition at support resistance as generating the oscillation. Analytic 10 7 13 8 20pm News on News. Let us say that a news release occurs within a short time before another Can we assume that the first reaction will alter any determinism of the next Of course if this happens all the time, that is they are scheduled thus, then we might assume this is a part of the way they react Except that there is a strong freshness to news each time is a new roll of the dice But the closeness will still create a new affect each time. So we see an effect not on directionality, but on the enhancing of the surprise element But this does not mean an increase in the edges of the dice, if I can put it like that nothing may, except possibly significant periods of time That is the potential for a spin to create a surprise outcome, if not actually enhanced, potentially enhanced. It may make for changes to the potential to react This may be seen in major news release reactions following over a few days, despite the outcome But might we expect something different in tightly spaced events, that separates the reaction from the input This is the point of interest For example, greater uncertainty at the time of the following event. Analytic 11 3 13 3 51pm Restoring Value. One can look at the remarkable recovery in the equity market as a recovery One can look at it as a search for value, that is the value at its height needed a reset Since the market has returned, as an aggregate valuation, to above its previous high, one can ask if it was a recovery, do the same questions that applied prior to its crisis fall apply that is, is the high now sustainable, if it is a recovery. If it is a reset one can ask the same question, but look for longer term reasons why it might climb One could also ask if we can regard the aggregate valuation expressed in the Dow, as capturing the movement of the flow of money and the interrelated growth and ebb and flow of companies Would this delay or perhaps sustain an attempt to go higher. Analytic 11 25 13 8 35pm Spatial Indeterminacy. If we look at value in a spatial sense, which perhaps one tends to do if one trades close to the market, can we note that there may be cases of spatial indeterminacy This we can class as unexpected price movements But how do we separate temporal indeterminacy from spatial indeterminacy An unexpected move may be expected at a different time. If we are looking at 1 min scale, this I would suggest is a factor The essence of 1 min is that position matters We can contrast this with longer term trading, where significant portions of a position may be ignored, so in fact we are looking at time, to a significant extent Either the move happens in an acceptable time or it does not. However the reference here may tend to be a template such as a pattern In 1 min the reference may be simply whether the move is happening - that is an unexpected move means something interesting may be happening to establish a distance from an entry position That is spatial indeterminacy becomes the flow of the market and temporal indeterminacy becomes how long can one focus on this. One might note that what is unexpected is the issue here and the idea is that the human mind can deal with this, especially on a spatial perspective, but also intuitively on a temporal level Else one can apply rules and templates. Analytic 3 31 14 1 43pm Movement of Value. Noting that the Dow is again having a go at 16,500, we can ask whether a sufficiently structured climb, will enable a climb per se That is higher valuations can be found, with sufficient resting on base points that are conducive to a climb, and value deflating, in the form of retracements One can ask what are the limitation of t his Or the advantages, to see rather than strong directional moves, that become unsustainable. One can also ask then is it important where the value deflates to, a question that could be of relevance vis a vis the rescue after the financial crisis One could perhaps ask the intriguing question, to what extent would this still structure the movement of value in the Dow. Analytic 5 7 14 12 34pm Shades of Value. If one can consider an idea of multiple markets in the equity market, that is clear transition between various states of a system to find value, that equates effectively to relative valuations, can one consider a Forex market in this way If we consider that a Forex pair may reflect to some extent changes in the Dow, we might consider that a pair may be forced to reflect this. The question is whether that reflection is anything like a relative valuation One can ask what does an equity market which contains relatively distinct states of valuation do does it when functioning correctly, si mply express a global sense of value over all states, rather than simply reducing to a system for moving from one state to the next. Can one then look at the reflection in a Forex pair and ask whether the market is valuing or has been valuing There is always presumably in markets that possibility of will value , contrary to the state of it in the past So one could perhaps then only look in Forex for some indication that the market may value. Analytic 5 29 14 1 38pm Search for Value in Forex. Why might one consider numerical valuations over time in Forex Well, one might note that this market moves naturally from clump to clump of value It can be given directionality from external inputs Perhaps the sense of movement over time can be re-written by temporally stable inputs, to the extent that this is possible i e the decay of any effect Thus, in these cases one may expect different behavior at clumps of value But without these, one may expect that apparently aimless movement, but one that is really a never-ending search for stable value. Analytic 9 2 14 1 45pm Search for Value in Equities. If it is considered that there is a whole series of expectations removed from a set of market valuations, because of various inputs being effectively removed, then how much does this free value, to do what it does, search for value in the context of the market it is searching in Does this attenuate certain generalized expectations in a search for value That is expectation contingent on the ways orders are placed, and also perhaps fundamental ways that markets find value, in general or in specific cases But what does this sense of valuation freedom do to the economy it emerges from For as the search for value leading in some sense, does it give its own bootstrapping like boost, which may be more directionally meaningful in markets attuned to this One could also ask about the conditions this breaks down in as well as supportive conditions for it. Analytic 12 30 14 10 31am Directional Constra ined Volatility. What may constrained volatility do to a market That is, the market is devoid of regularities, at its extreme, but nonetheless movement appears within it How far can this go Can a market build on this, perhaps if the force to do so is there But what if it is removed That is in interesting question, but it may protected the market that an indication to do so, may not change things much Possibly because in such a market it reverts to its landscape of value, in a short period of time The question is, how, can and should this be changed. Analytic 6 30 15 10 57am GMT The Origins of New Growth. As a hypothesised reflective property fades, what replaces it, perhaps a mix of shadows of this property, with power from inputs The question is, perhaps it is necessary for such a property to fade before new value frontiers can be found So when it fades what might be evident perhaps a question of a smaller reflections or b partial reflections or c a lessening of a cross market effect. Ana lytic 1 15 16 9 39PM GMT Moving Forward. Imagine a new market born in a shattered retraced world It emerged driven by market power, to overcome past highs So what does it do here It has to survive without reference to past times One thing it can do it build upon recent and not so recent points to bounce on or above from.2010-2016 Guy Barry - All Rights Reserved. The Biological Influences of Forex Trading Risk Taking. In Forex, it is well known that you are your own worst enemy Your body is forced through an emotional roller coaster while you experience the highs and lows in your trading. How we react under pressure, the decisions we make, and our feelings towards the markets play a key role in our chances of success. Forex is a psychological journey, but our own biology may have a significant role to play as well Research shows it could be down to our genes and hormone make up. Hormones are the chemical messengers our body uses to control functions in our body They have a huge impact on our daily lives including our mood, behavior, and the ability to learn from our mistakes. Biological influences, like hormones and neurotransmitters, have been speculated to be the major cause of boom and bust cycles in the market, market bubbles, and financial crisis. In today s article we are going to have a look through some of the major biological influences that can effect you and your Forex trading. After reading today s article, you may actually be surprised how many times you may have suffered a hormone meltdown, or been chasing a Dopamine rush. Testosterone Risk Appetite. Testosterone is the well know male sex hormone but did you know that women actually have testosterone in their system too, just at much much lower levels. Since the financial markets are dominated by males, we can safely say Forex its a testosterone fulled industry This hormone has been the culprit to blame for many run away bull-trend bubbles , market crashes and financial crisis. The bottom line is too much testostero ne can cause problems. The male dominant hormone fuels men to make riskier decisions, more frequently, and for higher rewards or losses Young males are always picking fights with one another, are more competitive and tend to be involved in more dangerous activities like extreme sports. This reflects what s going on in the animal kingdom. Male animals pick fights with one another to win their status as the alpha male The alpha male gets all the girls, so testosterone drives them to take the risk and pick fights with the biggest and baddest rival. After a win, the body releases more testosterone causing the animal to take even higher risks and bigger challenges Eventually they go too far and pick a fight they can t win, which is their ultimate downfall. This isn t too far off with what s going on in front of some trader s Forex charts The stronger male prevails, which makes evolutionary sense Thanks Darwin. Males on winning streaks are pumped up with so much T, they get the alpha male euphoric feeling of invincibility and no one can stop me which encourages them to take on higher risk trades, which ultimately leads to their destruction. Don t let looks fool you though one article states a person may appear cool calm and collected on the outside, but can be raging with testosterone on the inside and making high risk decisions. Research has also shown that those exposed to high testosterone levels for prolonged periods, can suffer negative effects on the brain which affect the trader s ability to understand what effect their actions in the market will have on the outside world So in other words, they re so overloaded with testosterone that they lose the ability recognize the consequences for their actions 1.This makes sense, as I ve heard of male traders basically gambling with large amounts of money that they couldn t afford to lose, which was acquired from extending their mortgages Really dangerous stuff, and it didn t end well either. I am sure the testosterone meter would ha ve been off the dial when one particular guy I knew was risking 50,000 at a time with a 350,000 account Now it s all gone. Bull markets are said to be fulled by the influences of male hormones Testosterone surges through market participants altering the crowd behavior, pushing prices to extreme highs creating a market bubble. We seen this happening in the Gold bubble of 2012.The interesting thing to note here, which I see time and time again, is how the market actually accelerates really aggressively once is starts to reach into extreme prices. This is what a lot of traders will refer to as a trend climax. Its easy to see how these scenarios are the result of testosterone fulled high risk buyers inflating the crap out of the market, which causes the bubble in the first place 2 7.We see this every day on the charts markets gaping from the mean, and crashing back down. In the War Room, we teach traders how to take advantage, and profit from these mean reversion moves in our price action cours e They can provide really fast returns as the market corrects back to value. Because Forex is male dominant we can safely say it s a testosterone fueled industry Testosterone is a risk driver and has been the blame of many market market bubbles and crashes These extreme market conditions potentially created by testosterone, provide lucrative opportunities to traders who have learned high levels of discipline. Coritisol Risk Aversion. Cortisol is the complete opposite to testosterone It s actually known as the stress hormone. In small amounts it is considered healthy and performs vital functions in the body but large amounts can lead into depression, anxiety attacks, high blood pressure and low self esteem. Remember that high risk trade you took, but wished you didn t You re constantly checking the status of the position and are losing sleep over it There is a good chance you were under the influence of high levels of coritsol. After these run away bull trends exhaust out, we generally see th ose mean reversions we spoke about earlier fire off which switches traders into panic mode. It has been shown in studies that trader s cortisol levels rise and fall with the changing market conditions 3.Fast moving bear markets can switch a trader from the ape banging his chest, into a scared little mouse as price turns against them. A trader who suffers a bad losing streak may start to experience depression and anxiety, and become a negative person to be around as cortisol levels rise to dangerous levels. Traders who took part in a study were administered with a pharmaceutical version of cortisol The traders were less likely to take risks Cortisol also rises powerfully in situations of uncertainty, such as volatility in the financial markets 4.So during market crashes, investors are too scared to buy assets when they really need, and therefore they go into free fall - Good one Cortisol. After the SnB released their currency peg with the Euro, we seen the Swiss Franc rally extremely fast T his put a lot of stress on Forex brokers because they couldn t keep up with the accelerating CHF causing expensive price quote gaps. Some brokers just raised the bankruptcy flag at point blank, but FXCM announced they were in trouble an needed bailing out. There was a panic sell off in their stock I am sure this news raised cortisol levels for those who were holding FXCM positions and make them slam that big red sell button. Cortisol would also be the biological driving force behind traders not wanting to buy the FXCM stocks as it switches on all the risk aversion signals in the brain. Now FXCM prices are at rock bottom prices, the higher risk testosterone influenced traders may start to swoop in and buy it while it s low. Cortisol is a hormone released when we are stressed It can spark impulsive, knee jerk, panic reactions from us, which we look back on and question our own choices in the market If you ve taken a very risky trade and can t calm yourself, or get any sleep it will be the cor tisol stress hormone causing these unpleasant sensations. Serotonin dopamine. These guys are neurotransmitters in the brain, chemical signals that help your brain control vital functions of your body. Seratonin is best described as a calming chemical signal, controlling things like carbohydrate cravings, sleep cycle and pain control 5.Dopamine is the opposite, it excites At elevated levels, this neurotransmitter drives your motivation, regulates your behavior and makes you want things Dopamine is quite often tagged as the reward motivator 5 8.When you eat chocolate, get attention from the opposite sex or win a massive trade in Forex, your brain rewards you by releasing dopamine Your body likes this feeling and makes you want more. A healthy mind will have a nice balance of serotonin and dopamine But if one increases, the other must decrease moving our mindset to one extreme. If you keep eating chocolate cake, or have a huge winning streak in Forex your brain may shift to dopamine dominant s tate, making you want more and more Serotonin is weakened, reducing your your brains ability to regulate these processes 6.This is how addiction starts. Things like alcohol, cigarettes, high calorie foods and drugs can effect the dopamine serotonin balance. The highs and lows Forex trading pushes us through wild emotional states This trader blames a dopamine high for his dangerous over-trading. He explains a winning streak of a couple of months caused him to become addicted to the feeling of winning, and was risking higher amounts of money, over leveraging his account to chase a bigger high. Ever thought to yourself why the stereotyped big time financial guys are well known to be cocaine addicts I guess we can point the finger at dopamine again They are addicted to dopamine. During dopamine highs, and serotonin lows we are not really happy, and we don t feel content Instead of focusing on what we have, we focus on what we don t have. Ever caught yourself saying things like, if I could just w in another 1000 today, I would be happy , or If I can just build my account up to 100k, I will be happy. Dopamine doesn t have time to wait for results it needs the unlimited money potential of the market that you don t have , right now So you start forcing trades to make things happen faster. If you think you re out of control and suffering from the effects of dopamine highs, this website suggests some supplements and exercises you can do to help raise serotonin again. Dopamine is your brain s reward system firing up when you eat chocolate, get favored by the opposite sex, or win a Forex trade Serotonin is a regulating neurotransmitter, as dopamine increases, serotonin decreases High levels of dopamine send people towards addiction and is hard to bounce back from like a trader who is dangerously addicted to charts and can t disconnect. The Fight or Flight Response. The fight or flight response is an evolutionary trait that was programmed into the sympathetic nervous system If our ancestors were confronted by a large roaring bear the flight or fight response mechanism would kick in. The brain needs to make a snap decision weather to run like crazy, or fight to the death by performing some super quick risk evaluation. In any case, the adrenal glands pump out adrenaline which increases our heart rate, lights our eyes up like a Christmas tree, increases our alertness and response time basically preparing us for battle, or a fast getaway. The fight or flight response has helped man kind survive the dangers of the land, but today we re not as much at risk of being mauled by a random lion or that angry bear, but it is triggered by modern day dangers. If we have a near miss with an out of control car, or someone pulls a knife out on you the fight or flight response kicks in. At the trading screen, fight or flight will surface when you look at your trading screen, and see a trade which you thought was doing well, now aggressively moving against you. How many times have you been in a s ituation where you ve looked at the charts and felt your heart start beating faster Your body is reacting and releasing adrenaline to help you deal with the threat better. People who put too much on the line, or risk money they shouldn t be, will experience these moments more than others Because so much is a stake, it s the oh crap moment which triggers all the emergency signals in your body. Generally the fight or flight response is the reason why traders freak out and exit trades too early, or try to micro mange their positions. Or, on the other hand, the flight or fight response may be responsible for traders jumping into fast moving markets, because they don t want to miss out on the opportunity. It s that I have to quickly react right now feeling, and it generally screws us. This is why it can be dangerous to stare at charts, especially when you have trades open It s better to set key times to check the markets and evaluate the situation at these set intervals. Like making trading decis ions at the New York close to see how the daily candle closed for the session, or checking the markets before the London open to observe the Asia session price movements. We do this in the War Room to identify any failed Asia breakout trades. Checking the markets in the middle of an NFP release, or a central bank policy update is going to cause chaos on the charts, and trigger the flight or fight response with your open positions. It has helped us in the outside world, but it s not very helpful in the financial world Don t let fight or flight mess your trading up, keep your eyes off the chart and let your trades complete their course. The fight or flight response is our body s way to supercharge our physical and mental performance for a quick getaway or a fight to the death High risk situations in Forex can cause fight or flight to kick in, flooding our blood with adrenaline Very common with traders who risk too much, or trade off the back of high impact news releases. Basically, all our bi ological mechanisms that helped us stand through the trials of evolution don t actually do much good for us in the Forex market. Although testosterone has been shown to help young males earn more profits by taking a more aggressive trading approach, an overload of the hormone can send these traders spiraling out of control. It seems like women and older men are better suited biologically for more longer term trading success by taking risk more seriously, and opting in for the conservative approach. Many big financial institutes and banks are catching onto this and are actively seeking out more woman for high ranking financial management positions. Your trading personality will be heavily influenced by your biology It s important to recognize when you re under the spell of your body s feedback loops and try to do everything you can to keep them operating within normal parameters. Your trading will be all the better for it. Please let me know in the comments below if you can recall times when your biology has taken a firm grip over your trading behavior, or if you currently have trouble controlling your behavior while trading. All the best with your trading this week. Did you enjoy this article It would mean a lot to me if you could share it Please also leave your thoughts in the comment section below. Kevin March 17, 2015.In addition to these bio-chemical influences there is this. Cognitive dissonance the concept of being exposed to information or having experiences that conflict with our existing base of personal and subjective knowledge The theory holds that our minds are not always flexible or rational when it comes to evaluating uncomfortable information or questioning our own beliefs. Dale Woods March 17, 2015.Stocks Rise Ahead of FOMC, Uncertainty Reigns Supreme. Chinese stocks put in an out-sized late-session ramp in the last hour-and-a-half of trading. UK Wage Growth prints at 2 9 , reviving hopes for inflation in the British economy. With FOMC on the docket tomorrow, trad ers should begin planning their exposure for the release All markets and positions could be susceptible to a noticeable up-tick in volatility.1 The Late Session Ramp was Back with Gusto In yesterday s piece we noted how the late-session price action surges that have become commonplace on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites were noticeably over the past few days Well, last night those themes came back with aggression After spending much of the session treading water, Chinese stocks rocketed higher with an hour and twenty minutes left in the session For the Shanghai Composite, this was a critical move as the index spent the entirety of the session trading around the 3,000 psychological level that we ve been discussing as line-in-the-sand support. The Shanghai Composite shcomp closed with a 4 89 gain while the Shenzhen Composite szcomp put in a 6 52 incline Only 12 stocks out of the over 1,100 issues on the index were down on the day This strength led most markets throughout Asia higher, and gains have come into many European issues as well as American stock index futures ahead of the open. With a pivotal Fed meeting on the calendar for tomorrow afternoon, be very careful towards chasing prices ahead of such a big release The more anticipated a release is, the more likely that we ll see noise ahead of the data and some investors have been looking to this meeting for three years when the Fed began mentioning September 2015 as a target date for a rate hike. It s also likely that we ll see traders attempting to position themselves ahead of big releases This means they could sell out of long positions or buy to cover shorts so that they re not carrying as much exposure into a risky period in the market This can create noisy signals that traders regret taking after-the-fact. Remember that in trading, opportunities are infinite Capital, most definitely, is not It s much better to miss out on an opportunity than to lose capital because there will be more opportunities tomorrow, and capital doesn t just grow back on its own.2 UK Wage Growth stokes hopes for inflation After UK inflation printed flat yesterday 1 for Core Inflation , the Sterling sold off as rate-hike hopes were further diminished for the British economy and this came after Ms Kristin Forbes commentary on Friday that said that hikes in the UK would like come sooner rather than later. But in a release this morning, UK Wage Growth printed a 2 9 gain that built back hopes for a rate hike early next year The Sterling has put in an outsized rally since the release, with GBP USD moving higher by.100 pips while GBP JPY has put in a. The allure of such a situation is that in a world that s seeing most economies embark on looser monetary policy, there are few currencies that look attractive to buy against expected weakness The US Dollar was the sole outlier from July of 2014 leading into the second quarter of this year, as the tapering of QE and impending rate hikes led investors into buying the dollar Hand - in-hand, we had weakness in GBP and EUR as this monetary policy dichotomy was expected to continue growing GBP USD went down by over 2,500 pips during this move, and EUR USD was down by over 3,000 as investors sold Euro s ahead of European QE in favor of US Dollar strength. With all of the banter around lift-off, gradual rises, and data dependency, the picture for the US and the Federal Reserve has become cloudier If the UK can solidify economic strength in the coming months, this could highlight the attractiveness for long GBP against currencies that are expected to weaken on QE and looser monetary policy. Created with Marketscope Trading Station II prepared by James Stanley.3 FOMC Strategy Anyone around the financial world has been inundated with media around tomorrow s Fed meeting, to the point where even critical prints such as this morning s US CPI number or yesterday s Advance Retail Sales have become marginalized while much of the world waits on the Fed. This is as messy of a deci sion as I ve ever seen because in the past the data or markets have pretty much shown the Central Bank what they should do with errors only becoming evident far after the fact Like Greenspan hiking rates too slowly to offset irrational exuberance seen in stocks during the Tech Boom which quickly became the Tech Bust or hiking rates too slowly to cool off the housing boom that created an enormous bubble within the American economy On the other side, the Fed has arguably been too slow to cut rates to offset the tech bust or the financial collapse, to the point where we had to have emergency Fed meetings to throw in 425 basis points 4 25 worth of rate cuts in a year between December of 2007 and December of 2008.The big difference is that this time, the Fed is leading the way Nobody in the world knows how this will turn out And even if you did know what Ms Yellen was going to say tomorrow, there would be no way of predicting how exactly the market would price-in this information making to morrow s Fed meeting a double entendre of risk And while this may feel exciting or give an extra pulse of adrenaline in the morning, trading professionally isn t about being excited It s about being professional. So, if you don t have a strategy that can manage your risk throughout the next couple of days, it s highly recommended that you tread lightly This is the fast lane of finance, and while prices can put in big moves really fast, Traits of Successful Traders illustrates how most retail traders do worse in volatile conditions. One of the best feelings in the world is being cash-heavy after a huge decline such as 2008 so that you can swoop in and buy when prices are at rock-bottom support Surely, this strategy won t work out every time, as prices may ascend without your participation and you re left sitting on your hands but if given the option between being prudent or taking a loss, traders should always elect the route of least resistance. About The Post. Category Elliott Wave Theory. What advantages does the Wave Principle offer to traders. Here s one of the big advantages of using the Wave Principle when trading you can increase your understanding of how current price action relates to the market s larger trend. Thursday, March 03, 2011.Breaking News Bulletin News Is NOT the Main Driver of Stock Market Trends A FREE myth-busting report from Club EWI reveals the real force behind long-term trend in financial markets. Tuesday, March 01, 2011.Every successful trader or investor has a method that they rely on to make investment decisions Without a method, investors must rely on the advice of others or their own emotions to make these decisions. Thursday, February 24, 2011.How the waves of social mood led to an investment method worth looking into. Have you ever been at the ocean body surfing, just waiting for that perfect wave When you begin to truly feel it, your adrenaline starts pumping. Tuesday, February 15, 2011.Every successful trader or investor has a method that th ey rely on to make investment decisions Without a method, investors must rely on the advice of others or their own emotions to make these decisions. Monday, February 14, 2011.Let s look at some possible wave configurations. This is a bullish wave configuration that marks the 2009 low as the end of a Cycle 2 wave and all waves after that as parts of a Cycle 3 wave up. Thursday, February 03, 2011.The big picture for Elliott wave analysis is five-wave patterns followed by three-wave patterns Let s look at the three-wave corrections more closely to get a bead on how they differ from one another This excerpt from EWI s Basic Tutorial describes in detail what you need to know about so-called zigzag and flat corrections to be able to recognize them on a price chart. Friday, January 21, 2011.The big picture for Elliott wave analysis is five-wave patterns followed by three-wave patterns Let s look at the three-wave corrections more closely to get a bead on how they differ from one another This exce rpt from EWI s Basic Tutorial describes in detail what you need to know about so-called zigzag and flat corrections to be able to recognize them on a price chart. Friday, January 14, 2011.Introduction to Elliott Wave Technology s periodical briefs As a service to the financial, investment, and trading communities, and in holding our longer range forecasts to task, on a rotational basis, we shall provide periodical briefs for each of the seven broad markets covered within our premium publications. Monday, January 10, 2011.In this article I analyze the recent work of Robert Prechter s Elliott Wave International , evaluating it in terms of the quality of epistemology, methodology, data integrity, interpretation, conclusions, recommendations and results The analysis is limited in scope to the equities markets since March of 2009 Because of time constraints, counterpoints to much of the EWI argument can only be partially developed here, but I hope to give them a much fuller treatment in my fo rthcoming book, tentatively entitled, Apocalypse Not Yet Wave V and the End of Financialism. Monday, December 13, 2010.There is a lot of Bull in the market My first chart the Weekly gives the Big Picture so we can see what our overarching market opinion needs to be Look at all the Bullishness on this chart 1 ES above the 15EMA, 50MA and 200MA, 2 all but the 200MA have positive slopes and the 200MA is flattening, is in W3 of W5, 4 ES consolidated below the 61 8 retracement level and began peeking above it on Friday still in area of resistance though , and 5 typical targets above the current high are indicated on chart including MOB. Saturday, November 20, 2010.The equity market started the week by extending the pullback, and then rebounded to end the week nearly unchanged Economic reports for this past week were mostly positive On the negative side were the NY FED index, weekly MBA mortgage applications, housing starts and weekly jobless claims The BEA leading indicator led the positive e conomic reports, along with retails sales, the PPI CPI, the Philly FED, industrial production, business inventories, building permits, and the weekly WLEI The monetary base and the NAHB housing index remained steady. Saturday, November 13, 2010.After last week s good performance, 3 25 , the equity market gave back some of its gains with its worse weekly performance since the second week of August Economic reports for the week were all either positive or improving The trade budget deficits improved, import export prices were positive, and consumer sentiment rose, along with wholesale inventories and weekly mortgage applications Weekly jobless claims declined, the WLEI and M1 multiplier improved, while the monetary base held steady. Saturday, November 06, 2010.The stock markets, worldwide, broke out of their trading range this week after the FED announced their QE 0 6 trillion program on wednesday afternoon The Bank of Japan followed up by announcing they were going to buy Japanese equity ETF s and other financial instruments as part of their central bank intervention program On tuesday, the Liberterian wing of the Republican party gained enough seats to swing the House of Representatives to the GOP We reported on this event on thursday Politics and Secular Stocks Bull Bear Markets, The Fourth Turning Crisis. Sunday, October 31, 2010.For the first time in quite a while positive weekly economic reports outweighed negative reports by over three to one The market responded, before the reports, with a new uptrend high and then went sideways during the reports On the negative side We had a lower rise in the Case-Shiller index, a decline in the UofM consumer sentiment and the M1 multiplier On the postive side Existing new homes sales rose as did the FHFA price index and weekly mortgage applications Q3 GDP rose, along with durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Saturday, October 23, 2010.Economic reports and the equity market ended the week mostly positiv e On the economic front industrial production, building permits and weekly mortgage applications all declined Capacity utilization and the BEA leading indicators were positive but flat There were improvements, however, in the NAHB housing price index, housing starts, weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED, the WLEI, the monetary base and the M1 multiplier. Wednesday, October 13, 2010.Named in honor of Charles Darwin, the Darwin Awards commemorate those who improve our gene pool by accidentally removing themselves from it I therefore propose the Nobel Award in Darwin Economics The recipient of the award would graciously be asked to remove just their economic genes from our economic gene pool If they teach economics, they d be asked to cease and desist, if they were the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, or the President of the United States they d be asked to resign. Sunday, September 05, 2010.The Market Oracle Newsletter September 3rd, 2010 Issue 51 Vol 4.Thur sday, July 08, 2010.Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle in the 1930s Over the decades, his discovery was kept alive by a handful of individuals A few of those, such as Bolton, Prechter and Frost, educated investors on how to use pattern analysis in financial markets. Wednesday, June 09, 2010.Walter Block writes Kill the speculators is a cry made during every famine that has ever existed Uttered by demagogues, who think that the speculator causes death through starvation by raising food prices, this cry is fervently supported by the masses of economic illiterates This kind of thinking, or rather nonthinking, has allowed dictators to impose even the death penalty for traders in food who charge high prices during famines And this is done without the feeblest of protests from those usually concerned with civil rights and liberties. Monday, June 07, 2010.Modern monetary theory seems almost too good be true It seems as if one is getting something for nothing Too many people who understand and write about modern monetary systems are very professor-ish and don t really answer the basic question How can one get something for nothing. Sunday, May 16, 2010.Entrepreneurship is one of the fastest growing fields within economics, management, finance, and even law It s also becoming a popular subject at colleges and universities Entrepreneurship courses, programs, and activities are springing up not only in business schools, but also in colleges of arts and sciences, engineering, education, social work, and even fine arts. Saturday, May 01, 2010.Jason Simpkins writes Corporate profits appear to have returned in full, manufacturing is picking up around the world, commodities prices have rallied and the Standard Poor s 500 Index is up about 60 since last March. That makes a pretty compelling case for what some analysts are calling a V-shaped recovery But even with all the momentum the economic recovery has accrued, that kind of talk may be a bit premature. Monday, April 26, 2010.Susan Walker writes How do you choose one lesson from a basic tutorial that is chock-full of excellent information about Elliott wave analysis You could browse through all 50 sections distributed over 10 lessons Or you could do what some people do when they open a dictionary let the book fall open and point your finger at a word Sometimes you learn more from a random search than a deliberate one. Wednesday, April 14, 2010.Linear thinking often utterly misses the mark in financial forecasting. Let s begin with a paradox The one constant in our society is dramatic change This is the main reason why projecting present conditions into the future often fails. Thursday, April 08, 2010.How much do you know about Bernard Baruch. He s mentioned in the foreword of The Elliott Wave Principle - Key To Market Behavior A J Frost s and Robert Prechter s definitive book on wave analysis emphasis added. Thursday, March 25, 2010.Jonathan Finegold Catal n writes In China s Water Pistol , Paul Krugman tu rned commentary on China into a general attack on those who remain wary of the United States large public debt In it, he sums up the Keynesian views on saving, consumption, and government spending Whatever his intentions, all Krugman does is underscore his own lack of understanding of economic theory. Wednesday, March 24, 2010.You don t have to sift through the latest economic data as if they were tea leaves. This is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International s free Club EWI resource, What Can a Fractal Teach Me About the Stock Market by EWI s president Robert Prechter. Tuesday, March 16, 2010.Inquiring minds are interested in velocity and money John Mauldin discusses both in The Implications of Velocity Unfortunately, Mauldin perpetuates three widely believed myths in his article. Monday, March 08, 2010.Four images provide the conceptual tools to refute Keynesian economics the gun, the wallet, the IOU, and the printing press Recall them every time you read a Keynesian promotion of the lat est government-spending plan Let me explain. Friday, March 05, 2010.Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free Often, basics is all you need to know March 5, 2010.Tuesday, March 02, 2010.By Susan Walker. If everyone says that shocks from outside the financial system -- so-called exogenous shocks -- can affect it for better or worse, they must be right. Tuesday, February 23, 2010.Same Day Same Event Same Market Different Story There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts -- Robert Prechter February 23, 2010 By Vadim Pokhlebkin. Elliott wavers sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be open to interpretation For example, what looks like a finished 1-2-3 correction to one analyst, another analyst may interpret as 1-2-3 of a developing impulse, with waves 4 and 5 on the way. Saturday, February 20, 2010.The Wave Principle identifies trend, countertrend, maturity of a trend -- and more. By Editorial Staff. The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave Intern ational s Trader s Classroom Collection. Wednesday, February 10, 2010.In case you were hiding out Tiger Woods style far away from the mainstream media during the past month, let me be the first to say January saw an abrupt end to the U S stock market s record-setting winning streak Last count, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 4 in its worst monthly loss in a year. Saturday, December 26, 2009.It is the year 2014 and Tiny Tim is ill, but he does not need the generosity of Ebenezer Scrooge to bring him back to health No, as Paul Krugman insists the Cratchits. have health insurance Not from their employer Ebenezer Scrooge doesn t do employee benefits And just a few years earlier they wouldn t have been able to buy insurance on their own because Tiny Tim has a pre-existing condition, and, anyway, the premiums would have been out of their reach. Wednesday, December 23, 2009.Interview with Robert Prechter about the Elliott Wave Pinciple, Socionomics, recent market moves and how he start ed studying all of it. Thursday, December 10, 2009.With the great bursting of the real-estate bubble in 2008, the federal government is reforming and expanding its regulatory oversight in hopes of legislating away booms and busts Recent decades have featured a series of speculative manias followed by harrowing financial busts, with central banks applying the same tonic a flood of monetary stimulus to salve the nation s financial wounds. Monday, December 07, 2009.A Contrarian Bullish Perspective On The Zombie Dia And The Status Quo Powers That Keep It Alive. How the Deck is Currently Stacked Despite the unequivocal failure of the entire global financial system, the prescient minority bearish contingent whom saw the writing on the wall years ago, are duly disappointed with the present outcomes since March This persistently bearish free-market contingent views the presently unfolding outcomes as a complete waste of a-once-in-a-lifetime crisis in which nothing of sustainable utility has been resolved to reconcile such an unmitigated disaster This contingent is largely of the belief that the worst is yet to come. Thursday, October 22, 2009.The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth. Vadim Pokhlebkin writes It s corporate earnings season again, and everywhere you turn, analysts talk about the influence of earnings on the broad stock market. Sunday, October 11, 2009.As the major stock markets turned down in late 2007 and then started to rally in March 2009, many people who believed in fundamental analysis have begun to question its validity. Monday, October 05, 2009.As the major stock markets turned down in late 2007 and then started to rally in March 2009, many people who believed in fundamental analysis have begun to question its validity. Monday, August 24, 2009.Before I get into what we need to think about this week for the stock market I want you to go back to last weekend and imagine what you heard people saying on television about the stock market Did you hear negative talk or positive talk. What I heard was a lot of people talking about a big correction coming People saying the economy is going to continue to slide, the stock market has gone up too much, and even some Elliott Wavers calling for a Fall stock market crash. Saturday, July 11, 2009.The worlds foremost elliott wave theory based forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International EWI has made available their key reports, ebook s and analysis of the financial markets and economy for FREE to our readership, this special report lists the key must read resources in the order of importance ALL of the resources can be accessed freely on registering only ONE email address with EWI. Friday, July 03, 2009.Have you heard the news. Wall Street Returns to Health, a mainstream media website declared last week. Thursday, May 28, 2009.The USD is in wave b down, currently in wave 5 of C We should see further downside before a strong rally in wave c up Crude is in wave b up, currently in wave 5 of C Cr ude is an excellent example of a bear market correction, since we would want to see at least 3 waves an abc complete from the peak If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave, you can examine the completed decline on any chart that has had a parabolic advance in a so called bubble The decline completes as 3 waves, with wave b up, as the bear market rally This rally also coincides with the other markets. Friday, March 06, 2009.Desperately Seeking Stability - At the worst of the two-year bust, the NASDAQ registered a 78 peak to trough decline In the following five-years spanning 2002-2007, though the market came nowhere near reclaiming its former value, it nonetheless posted a 158 five-year trough to peak bull market return. Friday, February 27, 2009.With the Dow trading some 50 points lower today at 7120, earlier in the week, the 30 year veteran technical analyst, Robert Prechter announced both in his Elliott Wave Theorist newsletter and publicly on Bloomberg TV that he was covering his sto cks bear market short position call that he recommended to subscribers over 18 months ago when the Dow was trading at 13,900.Thursday, January 22, 2009.The short-term Elliott Wave count of the S P 500 Index is shown below, with the preferred count shown in colour and the alternate count shown in grey For the preferred count to be correct, wave b of a triangle MUST be forming at present, and follow through to wave e for completion to form wave XX before starting wave Z this pattern represents a triple combination that would allow the broad stock markets to rise into mid March early April 2009.Saturday, January 10, 2009.Working out the largest of Big-Picture Visions - The equity price-chart below is a compilation of data points starting with the British All shares Index 1693-1853 , the Clement Burgess Index 1854-1895 , and then spliced using ratio multipliers with the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1896 to present The 315-year result is the longest contiguous record of equity prices i n the history of Humankind. Saturday, January 03, 2009.The wave 4 theory is alive and fine Here is the chart from December 8th Bullish Looking Charts S P 500, Nasdaq, BKX describing possible targets for Wave 4.In Elliott Wave terms we are looking for a wave 4 bounce The short term implications are bullish with possible retrace targets of 1008 for a 38 2 retrace or 1090 for a 50 retrace of wave 3 The long term implications are rather nasty Our Wave 5 target back down is approximately 600.Friday, December 19, 2008.Catch A Wave - Brian Wilson, Beach Boys Catch a wave and you re sittin on top of the world. There is another interpretation of catch a wave That interpretation is Elliott Wave I talked about waves at length on October 10th in S P 500 Crash Count. Monday, October 27, 2008.A highly deceptive global contagion of the bullish kind appears well underway. The basic concept of meeting the demands of large growing populations with finite world resources has always been one of extreme challe nge and controversy. Saturday, August 30, 2008.Readers who ve joined and finally understand what we do at TTC, and how we do it, often tell me they used to see these updates every week but just couldn t believe we were actually making in real time all the trades they contained It seemed too implausible that week after week we d find easy trades in various markets and buy tops and sell bottoms with such frequency. Thursday, July 17, 2008.We re excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert commodity forecasting services until noon Wednesday, July 23.Sunday, June 08, 2008.Two Sides to Every Argument From an Elliott Wave perspective, one can argue with good cause, that the Dow Jones Industrials are en-route toward retesting the depths of their 2002 bear market lows The magnification of weekly closes from the October 2007 top, display a textbook series of impulsive declines at three degrees of trend Case closed. Mo nday, May 19, 2008.Before we begin our look at the roaring Transportation average, we would like to return your attention to our previous week s article entitled Spring-Break Last week s piece did a fine job of calling a precise short term tradable low in the Dow. Below we re-present the chart from last week s article Within that article, previous guidance suggested, For select traders, proprietary criteria also provided another exit or potentially early reversal signal near the close at 12734 The follow-up chart illustrates how the reversal signal turned out to be a rather precise one, and by no means early. Saturday, April 19, 2008.Nothing new under the sun comes to mind when pondering whether financial markets are truly free Beyond all related conjecture, it remains a stubborn fact that markets have always behaved in a way to perplex the majority of participants. Thursday, April 17, 2008.So far the HUI turn date of Monday April 13thish was a few days late, but appears to be on cours e The XOI and USD index also are playing out according to their respective Elliott Wave patterns Analysis below discusses what to expect in the S P over the course of the next few months One side note, we have implemented all charts on our site going forward to be HTML coded so that a much larger version is available at the click of a mouse. Sunday, February 24, 2008.This continues to be a trader s market, no doubt about it When it takes three months for the market to swing a hundred points in any one direction, but you can get 30 points in an hour, this is clearly not time to buy and hold. The problem for many, though, is that they simply don t know how to trade short time frames and most subscription services don t specialize in real time analysis Not so with TTC Read on to see how we traded this past Friday and what it really means to be unbiased in this topsy-turvy market. Sunday, February 24, 2008.This week saw both Gold and Oil hit new all-time highs Gold rose to 958 40 on Thursday, February 21 st Oil rose to 100 86 on Wednesday, February 20th Silver also busted out higher, hitting 18 19 Friday, February 22 nd In the face of deflating housing prices, stock prices, and high risk credit assets, gold, silver, and oil are flying high What is going on. Sunday, February 17, 2008.Another week is now history and the bear case is looking worse for it Not that the market can t go down from here, but if it does, it won t be the impulsive 3 rd wave for which so many have been waiting and waiting and waiting. Sunday, February 03, 2008.Free-Market Dynamics vs Statist Intervention In this particular round likely the start of the 15 th , one may assume that at present, the round is even on points Free Market Dynamics have scored in breaching some minor structural under-pinning s of the artificially-engineered perennial Bull - and the Statists have scored in response - thus far placing a perceived floor against the free markets natural propensity to adequately cleanse abuse and exc ess. Sunday, January 27, 2008.A Work in Progress Well, it is blatantly obvious that the PPT plunge protection team, presidents working group or whatever they call themselves - found it necessary to intervene in the free-market in attempt to orchestrate a bottom. Where are these guys when markets are a boiling-pot of unsustainable parabolic animal spirit We suspect during such episodes, they are patting themselves on the back for planting the seeds for such bullish orgies. Wednesday, January 23, 2008.Now Live - Access to Elliott Wave Internationals Premium Financial Markets, Commodities Forecasting Services. No Strings Attached From Wednesday, January 23 at noon EST to Wednesday, January 30 at noon EST , The Market Oracle visitors can read the latest short, intermediate and long-term market analysis for FREE, from the world s largest market forecasting firm. Monday, December 31, 2007.Who is the judge The judge is God Why is He God Because He decides who wins or loses, not my opponent Who is your opponent He does not exist Why doesn t he exist Because he is a mere dissenting voice of the truth I speak. The above quote comes from the film The Great Debaters directed by Denzel Washington The Great Debaters was inspired by Wiley College, a traditionally African-American school in Marshall, Texas, with Melvin Tolson, its iconic debate coach. Sunday, December 30, 2007.The Australia SPASX 200 fell 11 00 points, or 0 17 percent, to 6,339 90 as of Friday, December 28th, 2007 Volume was 47 percent of its 10 day average Downside volume led at 65 percent, with declining issues at 57 percent, with downsid e points at 51 percent in mixed trading Demand Power fell 4 points to 400, while Supply Pressure fell 3 points to 420 telling us neither side had strong conviction about the trend Supply Pressure rose sharply above Demand Power Monday, December 17th, triggering an enter short positions signal, and remains there Friday. Sunday, December 30, 2007.I hope you had an enjoyable, restful holiday week But, if you re like me you ve been looking forward to the end of these shortened weeks and can t wait to get back to some heavy volume trading Friday s close left the immediate term outlook very muddled with many different patterns still viable, but as usual we re content to show up day after day to trade whatever the market offers All the ambiguity of the current setup means is that anyone who now says they know exactly what will happen next is probably wrong. Monday, December 17, 2007.Hey, Buddy, Can You Spare a Dime for the SIV Superfund 12 7 2007 2 33 58 PM Strange to see that Wall Street, whic h had no trouble raising money before the subprime mess and the ensuing credit crunch, is now scraping for spare change Here s why the superfund is a good idea for a few people but a bad idea in general Read More. Sunday, December 16, 2007.After a rollercoaster week, the S The Raging Bull we spoke of a couple of weeks ago, appears to have taken up permanent residence across many sectors of the financial sphere This bull has been relentless, cunning, and quite masterful in dealing with the plethora of participants who have been eagerly anticipating some type of correction if not an outright crash. After 11-weeks of nothing but blue sky, we suspect this bull may simply be growing bored of the dominance it imposes upon bears at will Perhaps a couple of weeks respite in June ought to be a minimum at which this easily antagonized bull may once again become angered, electing to resume its deceptive charge with renewed fury. Friday, May 18, 2007.Short Term Forecast. The DOW and S P500 are in end ing diagonal patterns, indicating that the rally is near completion in a terminal pattern We should see further choppy upside to complete the pattern, but when ending diagonals complete they are followed by a sharp decline to the starting point of the pattern The ending diagonal patterns began on May 1st, so we should see a sharp decline to the price action near this date We then would expect to see a corrective rally in wave 2 up not to make a new high, before further substantial downside. Monday, April 30, 2007.BACKDROP In April of 2006, we were quite aware of the parabolic price movements taking place amid numerous global equity markets We weighed in on the matter with a piece entitled Global Contagion. On September 14, 2006 with the Dow trading at the 11,500 level, Elliott Wave Technology forecast an imminent critical mass building within the Industrial Average At the time, we shared those observations in our presenting Equity Markets Approach Critical Mass. Monday, April 23, 2007.Pro viding a consistently accurate road map for traders and investors is both a rewarding and challenging responsibility that we passionately embrace We approach our calling as though legally bound by the highest of fiduciary standards. Although it is clearly impossible for one to know with any level of certainty how and when prices will move within a given series, this article will provide testament that it is indeed plausible to attain a distinct advantage, and actionable level of foreknowledge relative to dynamic price evolution in both time and amplitude. Success in the two separate endeavors of trading and analysis is by no means failsafe or a sure thing To the contrary, trading losses, and failed forecasting signals generously populate the real life experience of the most successful traders and analysts In this business, no individual, method, or system can get things right all of the time Within the chart archives below, we will provide such examples of real-world challenges and trium phs. Sunday, April 22, 2007.I m sure by now many traders have noticed what s really been going on It sure does feel as though the capitulation phase I ve been waiting to see may be upon us, as this was a brutal week for anyone stuck in a short position from the February top Or from any of the inviting diversions along the rally from the March lows. That s just the market doing what it s done ever since its doors opened it ll get every bear to cover and stop shorting, while getting the late bulls long, as the train appears to be leaving. Friday, April 20, 2007.Gold in recent days has flirted with resistance above 690, currently having retraced from the initial attempts at a breakout higher. From time to time, so as not to get suckered into a wrong analysis or wave count of a market based on relying too much on ongoing updated analysis I like to take a fresh chart of a market, in this case of Gold, and see what actually stands out clearly at this point in time, a Fresh view so to speak. What is the Fresh current chart of Gold telling us, especially in terms elliott wave analysis. Thursday, April 19, 2007.We at Market Oracle have been able to secure FREE exclusive access for all readers of the Market Oracle website to Elliott premium Financial Markets Forecasting services without any obligation as of now. Wednesday, April 18, 2007.One of the most recognised experts in the field of elliott wave theory is Robert Prechter, who s work on understanding and applying elliott wave theory to forecasting of financial markets, now spans more than 30 years. We at Market Oracle have been able to secure FREE exclusive access for all visitors to the Market Oracle website to Elliott premium Financial Markets Forecasting services without any obligation starting today at 1pm EST. Monday, April 16, 2007.Elliott wave theory in the hands of experienced professionals, has time and again shown itself as an important indicator of future trend, a road map that is constantly adjusted in the light of un folding price action. If you have been following the various articles on Elliott Wave theory at the Market Oracle website, you will have experienced the usefulness of elliott wave theory in projecting targets both in terms of price and time with also clear examples of how unfolding price action adjusts the wave count expectations. In a recent lengthy article 16th April , one of our contributors Joseph Russo illustrated this in his unfolding analysis of Gold over several months, and how at each stage Elliott Wave theory gave important clues in terms of probable price action, as well as how to interpret price action that deviated from the probable road map. Monday, April 16, 2007.Introduction After a short tirade inspired by the financial alchemy surrounding the world s reserve currency, we will quickly shift our focus to more stable realities. Through a briefing of price charts, we will speculate on just how far the dollar can fall, and to what heights Gold may climb In addition, Elliott Wa ve Technology will share with readers precisely how we have kept our trading clientele on the right side of a rather challenging Gold market from the print high of 730 40 in May 2006, through the violent, and choppy, year-long consolidation experienced since. Gold Boom Dollar Bust As the U S dollar threatens a two-year double-bottom re-test of its 2004 low, it serves as a timely reminder that the dollar remains firmly entrenched in a century long secular bear market Some 15-years ago in 1992, the dollar hit it lowest levels striking prints south of 78 50 Last week, it slipped back below 82 00 breaching lows most recently recorded last year in December of 2006.Sunday, April 15, 2007.Since I didn t write an update last week, I will go back to the April 1 st update to review where we had left off In that update I had stated. This week, we might have the same situation, but on a smaller degree Has the market topped out in a second wave retracement on March 23rd, or are we about to set a huge bear trap to finally get that run to new highs that sets up the classic capitulation. As we ve basically nailed these last two swings, we think we have the correct possible patterns and are waiting for a bit more price action to confirm It might only take another day or two I believe we will have a decent move within the next 20 points that we are ready to trade. Sunday, April 01, 2007.Surprise, surprise, another volatile week The bears got their big selloff, but it was in corn, not in the S P s Corn opened down lock limit as the S P s created great trading opportunities for the unbiased trader. As we ended 2006, I promised 2007 would be the year of volatility, and hasn t that been the truth It feels like only yesterday we were grinding up each day point by point Friday s closing bell wrapped up March, as well as the first quarter, but investors who were pegged to the S P are in for a surprise when they receive their quarterly statements The S P closed 2 points from its 2006 close. Sunda y, April 01, 2007.In this, our last article in the public series, we will focus our attention on long-term broad market strategies for self-directed index investors The Traders Series is in development, and will be available on our website soon. In addition to inviting index investors to realize the power and convenience of Elliott Wave Technology s Interim Monthly Forecast this article will present. The premise and composition for three types of long-term investment strategies. Simple guidelines to which one must adhere in effectively deploying each Pitfalls and risks if strategy disciplines are not implemented. Long-Term Charts of the Japanese Nikkei and the NASDAQ Composite Index from 1982 through present. An opening graphical summary of charts illustrating the results of Elliott Wave Technology s Pro-Active Long-Term Investment Strategy for the NASDAQ 100 from 1994 to present. The easiest and most effective way for self-directed index investors to monitor, and automatically track EWT s o ngoing Pro-Active investment strategies. Read full article Read full article. Monday, March 12, 2007.After a wild ride from last years July top, what lies ahead for Crude Oil prices. We ll get to the bottom of that rather deep well in our last price chart and closing comments First, let s back up and take a look at what s happened to the price of Crude Oil from the near 80 00 spike high back in July of 06 This will give us a sense of price history, and will also reveal just how Elliott Wave Technology has been making clients HUGE PROFITS ever since From July 13, 2006 through March 2, 2007 position traders using our analysis could have made a minimum of 38,000 00 per oil contract. Sunday, March 11, 2007.I m sure there were readers who couldn t understand the bullish tone from last week s update after the S P closed on the lows that Friday and looked as if it was about to fall off a cliff There was plenty of talk last weekend of a running flat second wave. Such a pattern is when the underlyi ng trend is so strong that it overwhelms the correction and, in a decline, wave c is unable to exceed the peak of wave a Monday s gap down should have ensured the doubters that this was in fact the correct pattern and that the trap door had been opened for the third of a third again. Tuesday, March 06, 2007.The Power of Chart Technical Analysis and Price Forecasting - In the highly competitive and at times controversial, rough and tumble financial forecasting sphere, maintaining resident impartial disciplines, and getting it right more often than not, is virtually the closest possible reality toward capturing the Holy Grail that we know of. Trading, investing, and managing any sum of money is an inherently risky but highly rewarding endeavor Traders and Managers of all stripes have big money on the line every day, year after year Exposed in equal measure, open positions are continually subject to both inherent risks and substantial opportunities that evolve with the passage of time Time is critical to this equation and waits for no one Other than by way of mere chance, time is completely void of accommodation in facilitating individual outcome preferences Time and price evolve dynamically irrespective of participants collective time horizons or tolerance for risk Given this, adopting a reliable primary or secondary financial forecasting source would check risk and balance profits in all time frames. What follows are chronicled price charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading up to the market meltdown of Feb-27, 2007.Sunday, March 04, 2007.It s funny how one day can change everything for so many traders and investors But at TTC we just did what we do every day and, as you re about to see, the strategy worked quite nicely. First, we re still very proud to have ridden the bull market all the way up from last summer s lows, insisting each week that the ride wasn t over yet After reaching the 1360 target on the SPX it was easy to say done, but I refused after review ing literally hundreds of charts Instead, I took the stance that a stronger, multi-decade Fib matrix target on the NYSE was asserting itself, and would need to be reached. The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting Analysis web-site c 2005-2017 Market Oracle Ltd - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use From time to time we promote or endorse certain products services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.